8 Predictions for the Era of Continual Learning

More from Dwarkesh Podcast

1. 

   31 Aug 2026 · 25 min

   The rise and fall of agent civilizations

   This is a video recording of a post I wrote last week. You can read the original here . This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com

2. 

   25 Aug 2026 · 1 hr 17 min

   Dylan Patel – Anthropic & OpenAI will have most of the world’s compute by 2028

   Had a lot of fun chatting again with my twin brother Dylan Patel. We went through lab economics over the next few years - the shift from inference to training as RSI draws near; and how Anthropic and OpenAI are on track to control most of the world’s usable FLOPs within the next few years (because they can monetize compute better and thus outbid everyone). And then we discuss whether the >$10T of total AI capex we’ll see by the end of the decade will cause a sovereign debt crisis, where hyperscaler debt raises interest rates, drives non-AI exposed countries into bankruptcy, and crashes…

3. 

   11 Aug 2026 · 2 hr 13 min

   Ryan Greenblatt – What happens once AI can automate AI research?

   Ryan Greenblatt is the Chief Scientist at Redwood Research, where he works on technical AI safety research. He's also lead author on the "Alignment faking in Large Language Models", and is currently working on a third party investigation into the OpenAI/HuggingFace incident. In my opinion, he's one of the most interesting thinkers on the future of AI. Had him on to discuss/debate recursive self-improvement. This might be the most important question in the world right now – whether within a year or so of achieving human-level intelligence, you slingshot towards having 10s of billions of…

4. 

   3 Aug 2026 · 11 min

   Why smarter AI models could drive up compute prices 10x

   This is a video recording of a post I wrote last week. If you want to read the original you can check it out here . Thanks to Mercury for sponsoring this video. Mercury’s built-in AI, Command, helps me close my books and saves me a bunch of time. At the end of each month, Command categorizes my transactions and provides its rationale for every choice: I just review, fix anything that’s off, and approve... and then Mercury syncs everything to QuickBooks. Get started at mercury.com/command This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus…

5. 

   10 Jul 2026 · 1 hr 38 min

   Adam Brown – A deep but accessible introduction to general relativity

   Adam Brown is back! General relativity is said to be the most beautiful idea the human mind has ever produced. Most of us will never get to fully appreciate its elegance by taking the 20-lecture graduate course Adam taught on it at Stanford. But in this episode, Adam distills the key idea at its heart so clearly and compellingly that even I could keep up lol. At the core of general relativity, Einstein is trying to figure out the principle behind a particular coincidence: that the mass that resists acceleration and the mass that gravity pulls on just happen to be exactly the same. Adam then…

6. 

   30 Jun 2026 · 1 hr 34 min

   Grant Sanderson – AI and the future of math

   Always so much fun to chat with Grant . AI has been making much faster progress in math than in other fields. As a result, mathematics is showing us, very concretely, what AI progress in other fields will look like. Even within mathematics, there’s a jagged landscape. What does it look like? What is the nature of the most important conceptual breakthroughs in the history of mathematics, and how different are they from what AIs are currently able to do? Does AI (on net) increase or decrease human understanding of the field? How big is the overhang from having AIs systematically try to connect…

7. 

   1 Oct 2026 · 1 hr 37 min

   Si Sheppard – How did a few hundred Spanish soldiers topple two empires?

   New episode with military historian Si Sheppard . The conquests of the Aztec and Inca empires might be the most shocking events in human history. Hernan Cortés and some hundreds of Conquistadors landed on a new continent they knew basically nothing about, and within 2 and a half years, conquered the 6 million strong Aztec empire. Then, a decade later, Francisco Pizarro did the same thing to an Incan Empire of some 10 million inhabitants. In both cases, the Conquistadors consistently beat native armies while being literally 100x (or even in some cases 1000x) outnumbered - and in many cases,…

8. 

   17 Sep 2026 · 1 hr 20 min

   Noam Brown – Agent swarms, alignment, & recursive self-improvement

   New episode with Noam Brown. We talk about multi-agent, Navier-Stokes, and what the current explosion of maths progress tells us about what happens once you automate AI research. And we also discuss how we will know if the models are actually aligned before we kick off RSI. Watch on YouTube ; read the transcript . Sponsors * Jane Street has been interested in AI for a lot longer than you’d think, and not just for trading. In 2011, a full year before AlexNet and over a decade before ChatGPT launched, they hosted the first FOOM Debate between Eliezer Yudkowsky and Robin Hanson on whether AI…

9. 

   11 Sep 2026 · 1 hr 37 min

   AI researchers debate how close we are to recursive self-improvement

   New episode with John Schulman , Beren Millidge and Charlie O’Neill . I got together with some of the most insightful AI researchers I know who are at the openish companies, because I wanted to hear the details of what's actually happening at the frontier and what comes next. Watch on YouTube ; read the transcript . Sponsors * Antithesis helps you trust your code. As agents generate more and more of your software, the bottleneck shifts from your engineers actually writing code to verifying it. Antithesis does that testing for you. Ron Minsky, who co-leads Jane Street’s tech group, told me…

10. 

    1 Sep 2026 · 2 hr 21 min

    Ajeya Cotra – Inside the OpenAI agent swarm that hacked Hugging Face

    Ajeya Cotra is a researcher at METR, where she works on threat modeling for loss-of-control risks from advanced AI. Before that, she led the technical AI safety program at what is now Coefficient Giving. She is one the three authors of METR and Redwood Research’s “ Brief independent investigation of agents’ behavior, reasoning and collaboration in the OpenAI / Hugging Face hacking incident ”. We go through not only what she and her coauthors discovered during this investigation, but what it means for how we should train future, smarter AIs which might be involved in the process of recursive…

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