The Market Is Mispricing A Correlation Shock | Dean Curnutt

More from Forward Guidance

1. 

   4 Oct 2026 · 54 min

   America’s AI Boom Is Squeezing Main Street | Weekly Roundup

   Can policymakers keep the AI boom alive without squeezing the rest of the economy? This week, Aidan Garrib, PGM Global’s head of global macro strategy and research, joins us to explore the widening divide between Wall Street and Main Street. We discuss what’s driving bond yields, housing’s squeeze, the debasement trade, and Europe’s policy trap. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:38 What’s Really Driving Bond Yields? 08:31 AI Booms While Housing Breaks 14:40 Can The Fed Get Yields Down? 19:23 The Fed’s Inflation Balancing Act 22:42 Can Main Street Survive AI’s Boom? 29:04 Why Policymakers…

2. 

   25 Sep 2026 · 1 hr 2 min

   The Bond Market Pain Isn't Over | Weekly Roundup

   The 10-year just closed at 5.22%, but the pain trade may be even higher. This week, 40-year rates trading veteran DCP joins us as we examine the bond selloff and what it would take to actually break something and flip the pain trade in bonds. We explore SOFR hike pricing, AI capex and private credit, diesel's hit to Main Street, market concentration, the quiet consumer stock bear market, and where DCP would finally get long. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:21 Why Bond Yields Keep Rising 07:30 Can Main Street Survive Higher Rates? 11:15 Can Treasury Stop The Selloff? 16:22 What Can’t The…

3. 

   18 Sep 2026 · 1 hr 13 min

   The Fed Is Hiking Into A Growth Slowdown | Weekly Roundup

   What happens when the Fed hikes into fading stimulus, slowing growth, and persistent inflation? This week, we're joined by Vincent Deluard of StoneX Group to explore America’s emerging stagflation trap, AI’s economic support, and Europe’s potential Japan-style currency reset. We also discuss the contrarian case for UK equities and Canada’s investment revival. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 01:34 Did The Fed Turn Too Hawkish? 08:10 The Stimulus Boom Is Fading 13:11 The Return Of Stagflation 21:06 Is The Fed Making A Mistake? 25:45 Can Trump Salvage Midterms? 32:35 Why AI Leaders Want…

4. 

   11 Sep 2026 · 45 min

   The Bond Market Is Trapping The Fed | Weekly Roundup

   Bond investors are testing whether policymakers can suppress yields without reigniting the inflation they claim to fear. This week, we unpack the political incentives, stubborn prices, and Fed’s looming credibility test currently testing markets. We explore the massive increase to Treasury buybacks, a possible one-and-done hike, slowing AI-led growth, if debasement trades are due for a pause, and the growing bipartisan opposition toward AI . Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:07 Can Bessent Beat The Bond Market? 06:56 Should The 10-Year Yield Be 5.8%? 11:01 The Inflation-Growth Trap 18:29 Ads…

5. 

   2 Sep 2026 · 45 min

   Fiscal Dominance Is Breaking The 60/40 Portfolio | Matt Hougan & Bob Haber

   The 60/40 portfolio was built for an old regime, but what replaces bonds when fiscal dominance and currency debasement become structural? This week, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan and Proficio CIO Bob Haber join the show to explore how hard assets fit into modern portfolio construction. We discuss how Bitcoin and gold, bond-market risk, fiscal dominance, precious metals, and the Fed’s shrinking influence come together to shape a new investing regime. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 04:38 Is The 60/40 Portfolio Broken? 10:23 From QE To Fiscal Dominance 12:45 Is Bitcoin Digital Gold Again? 18:30…

6. 

   27 Aug 2026 · 53 min

   Druck Calls Out Bessent & Will Jackson Hole Derail The Debasement Trade? | Weekly Roundup

   The macro establishment is turning on itself as Stan Druckenmiller challenges Scott Bessent’s efforts to suppress long-term Treasury yields. This week, we unpack the Druck-Bessent clash and what it reveals about fiscal policy, Fed independence, and market intervention. We also preview Warsh's Jackson Hole speech this week, potential bond-market manipulation, AI bubble risks, and whether the debasement trade is here to stay. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:43 Druckenmiller Calls Out Bessent 05:51 Is Druck Actually Helping Bessent? 08:42 Druck’s AI-Written Op-Ed 13:50 Treasury Escalates Bond…

7. 

   20 Aug 2026 · 54 min

   Treasury-Led Financial Repression Is Ushering In A Debasement Regime | Weekly Roundup

   Treasury is quietly taking control of financial conditions and the market implications could trigger a new wave in the debasement trade. This week, Felix and Quinn unpack Treasury’s accelerating intervention in long-term yields and why it could reignite the rotation into hard assets as policymakers suppress yields and tolerate inflation. We explore inflation, dollar weakness, AI financing, oil's ongoing supply shock, and where capital likely rotates next. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 03:17 Treasury Buybacks Change The Game 12:53 Is This Fiscal Operation Twist? 19:17 Where Does The…

8. 

   12 Aug 2026 · 46 min

   The Growth Strategy Trapping The Fed | Darius Dale

   Running the economy hot may keep growth alive, but it creates a dangerous balancing act for markets. Darius Dale, founder of 42 Macro, joins us to explain why today’s reflationary regime demands a different investing playbook. We also discuss rising neutral rates, bond-market pressure, Fed credibility, capital scarcity, and systematic portfolio risk management. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 01:00 The Risk-On Reflation Regime 06:29 Why This Bull Market Feels Harder 14:54 The Fed Risks The Bond Market 20:57 Inside The Fed’s Policy Tightrope 29:49 Can Policymakers Stick The Landing? 37:10 Why…

9. 

   7 Aug 2026 · 1 hr

   Washington Is Suppressing Volatility To Keep The AI Boom Alive | Weekly Roundup

   Washington is shifting from monetary management toward state-directed capitalism and the consequences could reshape where capital flows next. This week, Tyler joins us for his final roundup before heading to Shoten Capital, unpacking the shift toward state-directed growth and volatility suppression. We explore Fed-Treasury coordination, the AI capex boom, energy abundance, and whether Bitcoin is approaching a turning point. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 00:58 Tyler's Farewell 04:34 Markets Enter A New Regime 06:22 Treasury Takes Control Of Volatility 15:11 Nuclear Power Supercycle? 20:18…

10. 

    5 Aug 2026 · 32 min

    The Portfolio Built To Survive Every Crash | Jared Dillian

    Markets are relearning that durable wealth comes from disciplined risk management, not chasing momentum or relying on central bank intervention. This week, we're joined by Jared Dillian, editor of The Daily Dirtnap and author of The Awesome Portfolio, to discuss why markets may be entering a new regime where risk management matters more than maximizing returns. We explore Warsh's Fed strategy, the case for a steeper yield curve, why the AI trade may be masking economic weakness, how sentiment shifts after crowded trades unwind, and why gold and diversified portfolios could be poised for a…

Every episode of Forward Guidance →