Episode notes
Will they actually slow down AI? Dario Amodei, Sam Altman and Elon Musk say we should pace AI development — but we're not buying it. The three leaders of the AI race all agreeing on regulation? Smells like incumbents pulling up the drawbridge. This week Mark, JT and Kai unpack the AI safety debate, $9 diesel in California and what it means for inflation, 924 Aussie construction firms entering administration off the back of the Bartholomew collapse, private credit risks that nobody wants to talk about, and why the Fed just changed the game with three more rate hikes on the table. Plus — what…
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Bulls vs. Bears
MPC Markets · Business · English
Bulls vs Bears is a weekly Australian stock market podcast from MPC Markets. Every Friday, Mark Gardner, Jonathan Tacadena, and Kai Chen wrap up the week in markets, what moved, what mattered, and where the opportunities are heading into next week. Part weekly market recap, part investment debate, p
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S2 · E140 · 9 Oct 2026 · 51 min
Is it Over? OpenAI & Firmus Flop
OpenAI printed $50 billion. The figure in circulation was $68 to $70 billion. A $20 billion miss, against commitments that need 75 to 80 per cent compounding for three years. On their own numbers they were already about $300 billion short of those commitments by 2030. Firmus was the local disaster. $43.7 billion was the valuation ASX investors would not wear. The "oversubscribed" line lasted until the price was cut to $8.25 and the float was pulled. Front page of Bloomberg. Front page of Reuters. Morgan Stanley and the lead brokers own that one. Valued above Transurban. This is why ASX tech…
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S2 · E139 · 2 Oct 2026 · 59 min
Inflation & SUPER INTELLIGENCE
CPI at 4%. A White House AI pact with zero legal force. And 59% of the S&P already more than 20% off its highs.This week Mark, Kai, Jonathan and Finn (Phil is on the boat) sit down with client and fifth-generation farmer Dan. He ran apples for 27 years, then switched to cattle because frost at blossom is not a cycle you can sit through. The inflation half is diesel, supermarket pass-through, feeder cattle off the Carcoar yards, US herds at 50-year lows, and why the export cow does not have to bargain with Woolworths. There is also a kelpie, a highland copperhead, and a bloke near…
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S2 · E138 · 25 Sep 2026 · 57 min
Bond Yields Spike but Meta Muse Saves the Market
Bond Yields Hit 5.21%. Stocks Didn’t Get the Memo Risk-on in equities. Bond yields up 20 basis points in a few days. That pairing is usually mutually exclusive. The US 10-year hit 5.21 — highest since 2007 on the long chart they keep rolling out. Auctions were soft. Hyperscalers are now competing with the US Treasury for the same pile of debt. And in Australia the RBA is a 90% hike next week, with all four majors on board. So why did stocks bounce? Meta. Muse launched, the stock was up nearly 20%, and that was enough to drag the S&P up about 0.7% and the Nasdaq about 1% while the Dow and…
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S2 · E136 · 11 Sep 2026 · 52 min
10% Chance AI Kills Us All
Oil at $103. Treasury yields at 5%. Trump handing out $5,000 cheques. And former AI safety researchers say there's a 10%+ chance artificial intelligence ends humanity within the decade. In Episode 136 of Bulls vs Bears, the MPC Markets team cuts through the noise on AI existential risk — is it a genuine warning or conveniently timed ahead of capital raises and IPO season? Plus: why analyst earnings forecasts have failed to warn investors ahead of every major crash, Uber burning through its entire annual AI token budget in four months, and the fertiliser angle no one's talking about. All four…
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S2 · E135 · 4 Sep 2026 · 48 min
Oil Catches Fire, Nvidia pays 13b for Hugging Face
Oil hit $93, Fed rate hike odds swung wildly, and Nvidia bought Hugging Face for $12.9 billion. Three simultaneous shocks heading into September, historically the worst month for equities. This week we break down the oil breakout, the Warsh vs Waller showdown at the Fed, why open-source AI just became a closed shop, and what September seasonal weakness actually means for your portfolio. Plus stock picks, what the market is missing, and our bull vs bear calls for next week. Featuring Mark Gardner, Kai Chen, Finn Judell and Jonathan Tacadena. Key topics: Brent crude breakout, Fed September…
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S2 · E134 · 28 Aug 2026 · 46 min
In Jensen we Trust
Jensen Huang has done it again. NVIDIA posted $59.7 billion in net income, more than 12 iconic companies combined, on 70% margins. Software stocks are surging, the SaaSpocalypse is dead, and we're only a quarter of the way through the hyperscaler capex cycle. This week the boys break down NVIDIA's monster earnings, why ASX tech is lagging US software by 43%, Amazon's robotics play, the uranium setup heating up on US-Canada trade tensions, and warning signs in private credit. Plus the full Buy, Avoid and Wild Card picks for the week ahead. Fear & Greed: 58 (Greed). Bull/Bear: 3-1 Bullish.…
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S2 · E133 · 21 Aug 2026 · 36 min
US Debt Hits $40T, Gold Surges & ASX Earnings Winners and Losers
US debt hits $40 trillion. Bitcoin surges 20%. Moderna rockets 177% on a breakthrough cancer treatment. And Bessent starts buying the long end of the curve — is this the white flag on US fiscal discipline? In this week's Bulls vs Bears, Mark, Phil, JT, and Finn (filling in for Kai) break down ASX earnings season — CSL shines (+7%), BHP delivers a record dividend, and consumer discretionary gets hammered across the board. Plus the team debuts a new segment: Buy, Avoid, and Wildcard picks. Topics covered: $40 trillion US debt — what it means for fiat currency and precious metals Bitcoin's 20%…
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S2 · E132 · 14 Aug 2026 · 48 min
The Forgotten Themes of 2026
Bulls vs Bears Ep. 132 — The Forgotten Themes of 2026. It's been a quiet week, so the team digs into the thematics that got buried by geopolitics and headlines. Rare earths are down 41% from highs and JT lays out three catalysts for a comeback. Software caught a private equity bid on Workday. Kai explains AI sandbox escapes and why cybersecurity keeps running. Plus, an ASX earnings wrap, next week's big reports (NAB, BHP, CSL, JB Hi-Fi), the private equity wave sweeping ASX mid-caps, and why the "neocloud" might be where the next phase of AI investing really kicks in. General advice only.…
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