Episode notes
Is the AI stock market boom in 1998 — or are we already in2000? IBM stock has just crashed around 25% after its latestresults. I bought it. In this stock market update, I explain why I still believethe AI trade has much further to run, why the current market feels more likethe early dotcom boom than the final dotcom bubble, and why IBM may remain animportant part of the artificial intelligence infrastructure story. The central question for every investor is simple: Are AI stocks at the end of the bubble — or are Nvidia, IBMand the wider AI value chain still at the beginning of a much bigger…
Transcript
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So a quick update. Well, the idea that I've had all along about the AI trade seems to be holding. It was meant to be a better week this week. There's going to be less worse week last week, and that seems to be panning out. So I'm coming back from the depths of destruction, which is good, which is what I'm expecting. I mean, what I could have done was sold out and try to time the bottom and then mistime it again and muck it up like last time around, which was, you know, not such a terrible outcome. Because if you don't have an accident and you could have had an accident, you've really got nothing to judge that by. So a near miss is as good as a mile. So when you get out of the market and, you know, you've been out for some time and then you get back in again and you maybe miss some upside, well, all that downside that you missed, that didn't happen, could have happened. So you can't just say, well, I could have made more money. That is actually a little bit of a fallacy that really bugs people.
Oh, I lost a lot of money. Really. What happened? Oh, I bought in 100. It went to 500, and then I didn't sell and it went back down to 200 and I lost 300. No, you made 100. Yeah, I know. But I could have made five, you know, and all that stuff. You make what you make and you know what you miss is not relevant. It's what you get that is relevant. So if you missed a profit, well, what about the losses you missed? You don't care about them, do you? So you feel as if they never really happened. But there is real.
A missed loss is as real as a as a missed gain, but a missed loss is very much more invisible. Another way to look at it is, oh, I didn't buy NVIDIA. OK, think of all the money you didn't make. Think of all the millions I didn't make when I didn't buy that and I didn't buy that and I didn't buy that. So that's just the same as saying I bought something, it went up, I didn't sell, it came back down again. It's the same thing. But the one where you actually bought and then didn't sell at the right price, that's the one you remember, not the one you didn't buy, not the NVIDIA you didn't buy, not the Apple you didn't buy, not the Amazon you didn't buy, etcetera, etcetera, etcetera. And wow, that's a long list and wow, I missed them all. But anyway, today IBM has fallen off its perch because its sales are up 1% and it had not such a great return on its infrastructure business.
So boom, down It went 25% as I speak. And I bought a load because I, I play those silly games and it's a young man's game. I tell you, I used to do that a lot. I used to, that used to be my game, buying stuff that fell out of bed and then making on the dead cat bounce. Oh no, don't try to make on the dead Cat bounce. Well, if nobody wants to do it, there's probably money there. If everybody wants to do it, you're going to have a hard time. But anyway, so all the wonderful UPS of today are cancelled out by 1 big down, which feels a little bearish because in a bull market, lots of things will fall and one thing will go through the roof and that will make the day.
And today lots of things have gone up a lot, but one thing has gone through the floor, which is, you know, hasn't made my day, but I can now go buy the dip because my long term theory says all these AI infrastructure pieces, all these different stocks in the AI value chain are going to be good for a long time. So really there's one big call you're going to make. Isthisthe.com boom in 2000 and a bit or isthisthe.com boom in 19971998? Well, my thesis says 19971998 and it really does feel like it because there's not a load of crazy IP OS going left, right and center. You know what you look at and you go, what's that all about? Why has that done that?
This is mad. It's just a lot of really highly valued stocks. 1 crazy IPO that's done quite well. Feels like a Netscape IPO to me. So the next two or three years or maybe year is when we're going to go from, funny enough, in 1998 to 2000. So that's what we have to ride and work out when we should be, you know, partying like it's 1999 and then when it's time to go. But for now, if you think it's 1998, there's a lot of upside. If you think it's 2000, well, there's no upside.
I think it's 1998. I had that thesis which you've seen here, and it seems to be panning out pretty much as expected, little bit later than I expected, but nonetheless still seems to be happen. And again, this week is going to be interesting and the week after and the week after. So July is going to be a very interesting month and I'm expecting to be better off at the end of July than I was at the beginning. So we will see. And if that is the case, again, that says we're in 1998 or maybe 1997. But if you get a sudden leg down and after all, we've got the Wildman in the Middle East doing his thing. So there's all sorts of reasons why it could do that. But if it doesn't and we end up with a nice positive July, that would suggest that we are not at the end of this run and that we are actually in 1990, seven, 1998. Anyway, you don't know till you know. Meanwhile, don't forget to check out my UK channel Clem Chambers UK where I've been posting some UK specific stock videos and I did some things on on EasyJet, three of them actually saying. This is interesting.
Oh, this could be a takeover. And the next one was oh, look, it's a takeover. And the next one's? Oh, look. They've got the takeover price but stuff like that. But all UKUK only. I don't do anything that's America based or global based there only UK stuff. So if you're AUK watcher please go over and check it. I think you'll enjoy. Anyway see you all soon. Don't forget to subscribe and like because it makes a huge difference to me if you do that and be more coming up very soon. Bye now.
Transcript supplied by the publisher with the episode.
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Clem Chambers Alpha
Clem Chambers · Business · English
Clem Chambers Alpha breaks down markets, macro, AI, commodities, crypto and geopolitics with data-driven, contrarian insight. From gold, silver and rare earths to breakout charts, liquidity flows and global power shifts. For investors who want clarity, edge and intelligence. Clem Chambers Alpha cut
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