Sticky Inflation. Cheap Volatility. A Less Predictable Fed. Why Aren’t Markets More Worried?

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1. 

   S1 · E482 · 10 Sep 2026 · 1 hr 5 min

   Everyone Hates Bonds. Why Two Bond Managers Say You're Hating the Wrong Ones

   John Kerschner and Michael Contopoulos of Janus Henderson join Matt Zeigler to explain why persistent inflation and higher interest rates call for a different approach to bond investing. They explore short-duration bonds, AAA CLOs, mortgage-backed securities and how investors can rethink the fixed income allocation in a 60/40 portfolio. The conversation covers why traditional bond benchmarks may deliver too much interest rate risk for their yield, how ETFs expand access to securitized credit, and why the AI buildout could add to inflation rather than solve it. High-Conviction Views: The time…

2. 

   S1 · E481 · 8 Sep 2026 · 57 min

   All-In on the S&P 500 Worked for 18 Years | Jared Dillian on Why It's Still Wrong

   Jared Dillian joins Matt Zeigler to discuss The Awesome Portfolio, his approach to asset allocation built around 20% each in stocks, bonds, gold, cash, and real estate. They explore how diversification, annual rebalancing, and managing volatility can help investors reduce financial stress and build a portfolio they can stick with through bear markets. Jared explains his "life hedge" concept, challenges conventional wisdom about stock market drawdowns, and shares how losing half his net worth during the financial crisis shaped his investing philosophy. Buy The Awesome Portfolio Book…

3. 

   6 Sep 2026 · 56 min

   Nvidia Is Betting on Its Customers. Gen Z Is Betting on Sports. Will It All End the Same Way?

   Cameron Dawson and Dave Nadig join Matt Zeigler on Click Beta to explore how sports betting, leveraged ETFs and speculative behavior are blurring the line between gambling and investing. They also examine AI circular financing, hyperscaler cash flow and corporate disclosure, asking what investors might be missing beneath headline earnings. The conversation closes with baseball, music fandom and the challenge of learning from imperfect role models. Subscribe to Click Beta on Spotify⁠⁠ ⁠⁠Subscribe to Click Beta on Apple Podcasts Topics covered: Why sports betting is becoming a financial…

4. 

   S1 · E480 · 3 Sep 2026 · 1 hr

   Bearish Into November. Room to Run After: Why Dan Niles Is Watching Hyperscaler Credit Default Swaps

   Dan Niles joins Excess Returns to explain why he believes AI is a genuine industrial revolution and a bubble at the same time, with significant opportunity still ahead but growing risks in semiconductors, software, AI CapEx and credit markets. We discuss NVIDIA, OpenAI, Anthropic, China’s semiconductor push, data center politics, AI debt issuance, Fed policy and the downside protection framework Dan uses to navigate technology cycles. Dan Niles on X https://x.com/DanielTNiles Niles Investment Management https://www.nilesinvestmentmanagement.com Topics covered: Why AI can be both a…

5. 

   3 Sep 2026 · 51 min

   The Fed Credibility Narrative Has Turned | Ben Hunt on AI, the Consumer and Financial Repression

   Ben Hunt joins Matt Zeigler to explain why damaged Fed and Treasury credibility could matter just as four major risks converge across private credit, AI financing, oil and the consumer. They discuss financial repression, rising long-term rates, shadow banking and insurance risk, the AI CapEx growth engine, and why Hunt believes gold may benefit if policymakers keep trying to suppress the price of money. Subscribe on Spotify⁠ ⁠Subscribe on Apple Topics covered Why credibility is a teacup and why policy reputation is difficult to repair once it breaks How the Fed's July rate decision changed…

6. 

   S1 · E479 · 29 Aug 2026 · 1 hr 5 min

   The Profits Come Now. The Costs Come Later. Kevin Muir on Whether AI Earnings Are the Bubble

   Kevin Muir of The MacroTourist joins Matt Zeigler to break down the bond market, Scott Bessent's Treasury buybacks, the Treasury General Account, AI-driven earnings growth, leveraged ETF risk, gold and the U.S.-Canada trade fight. Kevin explains why rising long-term yields may be less surprising than investors think, how the AI capex boom can inflate earnings before costs show up, and why leveraged ETFs and policy uncertainty could make markets more fragile. Kevin Muir on X https://x.com/kevinmuir The MacroTourist https://themacrotourist.com Topics covered Why stronger nominal GDP, large…

7. 

   28 Aug 2026 · 57 min

   Private Equity Chased Software. Big Tech Is Chasing AI. Dan Rasmussen on If They Are Making the Same Mistake Twice

   Dan Rasmussen, founder and managing partner of Verdad Advisers and author of The Humble Investor, joins Kai Wu to examine the unraveling of private equity, the rise of private credit, and how AI is reshaping software, labor, and the economics of technology investing. They also explore the massive AI CapEx boom, why value investing has struggled in the intangible-heavy U.S. market, the unusual opportunity in Japanese small caps, and how investors can quantify intangible value in biotech. Subscribe on Spotify⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠Subscribe on Apple Topics covered: Why private equity became a consensus trade…

8. 

   S1 · E478 · 25 Aug 2026 · 1 hr 1 min

   Only 2.7% Beat the S&P for 20 Years | Ian Cassel on What Elite Stock Pickers Do Differently

   Ian Cassel, founder of MicroCapClub and author of Stock Picker, joins Matt Zeigler to break down the mindset, temperament and core skills required to outperform as an active stock picker. They discuss microcap investing, position sizing, active patience, valuation, management quality, portfolio survival, benchmarking against the S&P 500 and how great investors evolve their edge over decades. Stock Picker: How to Develop the Mindset, Temperament, and Strategy to Outperform Wall Street https://amzn.to/4hU28Im Topics covered How an investor's motivations change as ambition gives way to family,…

9. 

   S1 · E477 · 22 Aug 2026 · 1 hr 2 min

   The Rally is Broadening. The Earnings Growth Isn't. Liz Ann Sonders on Which Breaks First

   Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, joins us to explain why today's economy and stock market are increasingly defined by rotation, instability and a changing stock-bond relationship. We discuss AI capital spending and earnings concentration, Treasury yields and the deficit, immigration and labor supply, investor sentiment, market breadth, portfolio rebalancing, IPOs and the growing economic importance of the stock market wealth effect. Topics covered: Why the post-pandemic economy is moving through sector-level recessions and expansions instead of a traditional…

10. 

    20 Aug 2026 · 1 hr 1 min

    We Asked Andy Constan What Happens If AI Funding Breaks Before the Thesis — And if Warsh Blinks

    Andy Constan is back on First Principles to explain why record stock prices, rising long-term Treasury yields and sticky inflation can all coexist, and why the next major market risk may come from the financing behind the AI CapEx boom rather than the eventual return on that investment. We discuss Kevin Warsh and Fed balance sheet policy, Treasury issuance and the quarterly refunding announcement, corporate bond and equity supply, Nvidia's $500 billion financing structure, and Andy's "not enough pie" framework for comparing AI earnings expectations with GDP and productivity growth. Follow…