Podcast · Society & Culture

More or Less

by BBC Radio 4 · English · Society & Culture

Tim Harford explains - and sometimes debunks - the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life.

New episodes: Weekly
Typical length: 9 min
Latest: 14 Oct 2026
Language: English

Latest episode

14 Oct 2026 · 29 minNew

Fact-check: Will Scottish pensioners really be funding English social care?

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week: (00:40) First Minister John Swinney has claimed that Scottish pensioners are set to lose £2000, with the money going to fund English social care. We gently suggest he might like to consider the existence of the Barnett formula, and explain that, when you do, the picture looks very different. (06:08 ) The Liberal Democrats have dug out data on maternity injuries that they claim is ‘a shocking indictment of our NHS maternity services’. We explore flaws in their analysis and ask an expert what a better source of data tells us…

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Earlier episodes 29 most recent

10 Oct 2026 · 9 min
Fact-check: Is China missing a billion people?
A viral video circulating online claims the population of China is actually a billion people lower than the UN and China say. A billion is big number, you'd think the Chinese would notice if that many were missing - and the claim is certainly false. However, as the team dug into the stats, a strange story emerged - which suggests the official data on births and fertility may not be quite as reliable as you might think. We spoke to demographer Professor Sabu Padmadas from the University of Southampton to find out more. If you spot a story you'd like us to dig into contact us at…
7 Oct 2026 · 29 min
Is the UK state pension really the lowest in Europe?
Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week: (00:42) Is the UK uniquely miserly when it comes to the state pension? That’s the story a viral social media post is telling - but have they adjusted to account for complicated structural differences between national systems? Reader, they have not. (07:23) In a podcast feud nobody saw coming, Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg and Tucker Carlson recently locked horns over whether Russia or UK has a larger economy. Who's right? Only one person can possibly adjudicate this one: Duncan Weldon. (15:06) What effect did this year’s heatwaves…
3 Oct 2026 · 9 min
The Uzbekistan-shaped hole in an influential climate cost paper
How much could climate change cost the global economy? That would be a very useful thing to know, and scientists have developed statistical models that they think can help give a reasonable answer. These involve finding the patterns in economic data associated with temperature changes - and then applying them to the future changes that are predicted as the globe warms. In 2024, a scientific paper was published that apparently offered the most accurate projection yet of that potential cost - analysing the impact of temperature on economic activity at a far more granular level than had been…
30 Sep 2026 · 30 min
Does the UK really have nine out of the ten poorest regions in Northern Europe?
Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week: (00:40) Does the UK account for nine out of ten of the poorest regions in Northern Europe? It’s a classic story of devil meets detail where the true meaning is the geographical inequality we met along the way. (07:54) An article in The Economist has claimed that a single donkey charity in Devon received more in annual donations than all the major political parties combined. Is this true? And if so, should we be Led by Donkeys? (11:29) Last week 781 migrants crossed the channel in small boats in one day. Social media is keen…
26 Sep 2026 · 9 min
Trump fact-check: Do the US and Venezuela have 60% of the world’s oil?
US president Donald Trump has claimed in a speech to the UN that the US and Venezuela combined now have 60% of the world’s oil. 100% of the team on More or Less were confused. What measurement was the president using to get to this figure? Barrels of oil produced a day? Reserves of oil in the ground? It’s hard to make any of these stats add up. To find out whether there was any truth in the claim, we spoke to energy expert Bill Farren-Price of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. If you spot any numbers you think we should take a look at, email us at [email protected] Presenter: Tim…
23 Sep 2026 · 29 min
Has the UK’s productivity puzzle been solved?
Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week: (00:42) Frustrated economists have been left rending their garments and howling in the streets after the UK’s ‘productivity puzzle’ - a decade-long head-scratching, soul-searching conundrum - disappeared with a click of the fingers and a tweak of the methodology. Should the Office for National Statistics have acted sooner? We ask Financial Times economic guru Chris Giles. (07:26) Can it really be true that by the 1960s, one in ten Irish children entered religious orders? Reporter Lizzy McNeill has the answer, and the…
19 Sep 2026 · 9 min
Are carrots becoming less nutritious?
Are fruit and vegetables less nutritious than they used to be? And is declining soil quality to blame? Loyal listener Sarah got in touch to ask us to investigate an interesting quote from Dr Karan Rajan in a BBC news story. “We know our soil is not as nutrient dense as it was decades ago,” he said. “So a carrot in the 1950s will be far more nutrient-rich than a 2026 carrot.” Is this really true? wondered Sarah. We wondered the same, so we spoke to some experts on fruit and veg nutrition to find out. CONTRIBUTORS Robin Marles, a former senior scientist in Canada’s Food and Nutrition…
16 Sep 2026 · 28 min
Are bad teeth the number one reason kids go to A&E?
Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week: (00:33) Are crumbling teeth the number one reason children attend A&E? We drill down into the dental health of the nation’s kids. (08:20) The US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee has claimed that a quarter of pharmaceuticals used in the UK come from Israel. We check the facts. (13:20) Is former Education Secretary Michael Gove responsible for increasing number of young people not in education, employment or training? (20:11) An AI researcher has caused a global firestorm by suggesting there’s more than a 10% chance AI…
12 Sep 2026 · 9 min
Could this be the strongest El Niño in 1,000 Years?
Every year, climate scientists keep a close eye on data coming out of a particular area of the Pacific Ocean. They’re trying to measure the scale of a climate phenomenon - the El Niño event or effect. This is a naturally occurring phenomenon where ocean surface temperatures rise, transferring warmth from the ocean to the atmosphere. This can drive up global temperatures but also play havoc with weather systems, with profound consequences. And this year, scientists have watched with ever-widening eyes, as their projections for the peak of this year’ El Niño event have come in unprecedently…
9 Sep 2026 · 29 min
Why are so many ex-prisoners being sent back to prison?
Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week: (00:38) The number of people being recalled to prison after early release in England and Wales is rising sharply. Why? (07:37) Is the UK millionaire an endangered species? We ask Duncan Weldon - he’s like David Attenborough, but for economics. (14:21) A viral graph seems to show that Europe is having a record low year for wildfires. How can we reconcile this with this summer’s shocking coverage of fires in France and Spain? (21:36) We all know seagulls are low-life thieves - but can they really be responsible for £171m…
5 Sep 2026 · 9 min
Is every card shuffle unique?
Can it really be true that every shuffle of a deck of cards is unique? Mathematician and stand-up comedian Matt Parker claims that every time you do a shuffle, the cards have never been in that order before. But how can he be so confident? Matt came into the studio armed with a deck of cards and some very big calculations to back up his big assertion, and introduced us to the mind-splitting mathematical world of factorials and combinatorics. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Nathan Gower Series producer: Tom Colls Sound engineer: James Beard Programme co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Editor:…
4 Sep 2026 · 7 min
Bonus podcast: Norman Numbers
What's this, an extra podcast? Has Christmas come early? No, the Bayeux Tapestry has instead returned to England for the first time in almost 1000 years. To mark the occasion, we've compiled six snack-sized stats all about the Norman invasion of England to help you have something to talk about in various social situations such a pub quizzes, movie nights and awkwardly quiet lifts. From horses to the Harrying of the North, it's all here. Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Tom Colls, Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Production Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix:…
29 Aug 2026 · 9 min
Do Germans really take 19.5 days of sick leave per year?
How do different countries compare, in terms of the amount of time that workers take as sick leave? Loyal listener Dave got in touch to ask us to look at a surprising statistic he saw in the news – that the average German takes 19.5 days of sick leave per year. “This is extremely hard to believe,” he wrote. We track down the – highly reliable – source of the claim, and look at the differences between countries when it comes to taking time of work with illness. To guide us through it all is Lukas Lehner - assistant professor at the University of Edinburgh. If you’ve seen a number in the news…
22 Aug 2026 · 9 min
How much of the world isn’t owned by anyone?
Sometimes world events of massive practical significance lead our minds towards some lovely impractical thoughts. So it was for loyal listener, Nigel. Pondering the conflict in Iran, and the maritime ownership of the Straits of Hormuz that has become its focus, his mind wandered to an altogether bigger and - honestly - far less important question. “How much of the world surface actually doesn't belong to anyone?” he wondered. To try and answer Nigel’s question, we enlisted the help of Mark Cooper-Jones, one half of YouTube duo Map Men. If you’ve seen a number in the news that you think we…
15 Aug 2026 · 9 min
14 million deaths or zero deaths? The impact of the USAID cuts
As part of their mandate to stop 'waste, fraud and abuse' in federal government spending, DOGE, the department of Government Efficiency, made large cuts to the amount of money the US spent on foreign aid. The task force, headed by Elon Musk, effectively dismantled the US's largest foreign aid agency, USAID - cancelling many of its programmes and absorbing the remainder into the State Department. This has caused controversy in some circles, with researchers estimating that the cuts could result in the loss of 14 million lives by 2030. Musk strenuously denies this, stating that cuts made by…
8 Aug 2026 · 9 min
How much of all the money in the world does Elon Musk have?
Earlier this year, South African-born tech tycoon Elon Musk briefly became the world’s first dollar trillionaire. This prompted loyal listener Stephen to email the More or Less team, to ask us to investigate something his daughter had been pondering: For all Musk’s vast wealth, what does it equate to as a proportion of all the wealth in the world? How much of all the money does Elon Musk have? We set about trying to figure this out, with the help of Robin Wigglesworth, author of A Fabulous Debt and journalist at the Financial Times. If you’ve seen a number in the news that you think we…
1 Aug 2026 · 9 min
Would you take £50,000 or a 50/50 chance of £1m?
If you had a choice between instantly receiving £50,000 or a 50% chance to win £1m, which would you pick? When YouGov asked exactly that question to people in the UK, 73% said they would take the £50,000, while 21% opted for the 50/50 chance of winning £1m. As you may or may not have imagined, this finding provoked outrage on Twitter, with people saying the UK appeared incredibly risk averse. “This is what’s wrong with Britain,” wrote celebrity polling analyst and More or Less interviewee Nate Silver. But is the result surprising, when you know a bit more about how people make decisions like…
30 Jul 2026 · 30 min
The mistake in Trump’s tariff formula
What is the error in the calculation Donald Trump used to work out his new tariffs? What happened when the government ordered a recount of bobbies on the beat? When is a tax freeze not a tax freeze? And do redheads really have a 25% higher tolerance to pain? Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Charlotte McDonald Producers: Nathan Gower and Lizzy McNeill Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon
25 Jul 2026 · 9 min
Is crime in London ‘through the roof’?
The crime rate in London has been cropping up regularly on social media and in political discussions - US president Donald Trump has claimed that crime in the city is ‘through the roof’. But what does the data tell us? Professor Matt Ashby, from University College London’s Centre for Global City Policing, has put together statistics that allow you to start to compare crime rates between cities around the world. That evidence shows London in a different light, in terms of murder and other violent crimes. If you see any stats you think need looking into, contact us at [email protected]…
18 Jul 2026 · 9 min
How much luck do you need to win the World Cup?
As the 2026 World Cup approaches its end, what is the biggest factor in who wins? Is it extraordinary moments of attacking magic? Gritty defensive organisation? Or is it all just a question of luck and random chance? We look at how mathematicians and analysists make sense of chaos, xG and unpredictability in the beautiful game. If you've seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email the team: [email protected] CONTRIBUTORS: Ian Graham, former Head of Research at Liverpool FC David Sumpter, Professor of Applied Mathematics at Uppsala University Luis Nunes Vicente,…
11 Jul 2026 · 9 min
Does playing tennis make you live 9.7 years longer?
Recently a post did the rounds on Twitter, claiming that people who play tennis live on average 9.7 years longer than people who play other sports. The figure comes from a recent analysis of people's exercise habits in Denmark. But not everyone on Twitter was convinced. Tennis is a sport that in many countries is expensive to play and so attracts wealthier players. Couldn't it be the players' socio-economic status driving the trend? We speak to medical statistician Adam Jacobs, to understand what the study in question can, and cannot, say for certain. If you see any stats that look too good…
8 Jul 2026 · 28 min
Does the average teacher really earn £54,000?
Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week: (00:32) A government minister has informed the nation that average teacher pay in England is around £54,000. Radio 4 listeners are howling at the radio in disbelief. Surely someone from the IFS would be able to explain all this? We interview someone from the IFS to explain all this. (06:32) A headline in the Independent suggests that Russian soldiers survive an average of 20 minutes when they get to the front line, citing a historian, citing Russian bloggers. Is the number a good one? We take a peek into the murky…
4 Jul 2026 · 9 min
Does a full moon make crime rates go up?
The Moon is one of the most captivating features of our night's sky, and apparently, one of the most suspicious.... For thousands of years, people have blamed the full moon for strange behavior. From ancient myths and the origins of the word lunacy to modern police folklore, the idea that a bright moon can influence human actions is one that many believe. But what does the data tell us? We spoke to Professor Eric Chudler, who has looked at crime rates and lunar cycles to discover whether the moon truly is the ultimate crime puppeteer. If you spot any suspicious numbers in the news or life…
1 Jul 2026 · 28 min
Examining the numbers behind Andy Burnham’s ‘Manchester Miracle’
Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week: (00:23) Andy Burnham may not be Prime Minister yet, but he’s setting out his economic agenda, and its based on his old stomping ground, Greater Manchester. We ask whether the official figures that seem to show an economic miracle can be fully believed, and how much credit he deserves. (10:09) As our towns and cities get hotter, would turning to air conditioning really drive outside temperatures up by 10 to 12 degrees celcius? We learn about the fascinating world of ‘urban heat islands’. (15:40) We turn to homophones in an…
24 Jun 2026 · 28 min
Benefits v minimum wage: Which pays more?
Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week: (00:42) Former Chancellor of the Exchequer Sir Jeremy Hunt argues that you can earn far more on out of work benefits than you can on the minimum wage. We argue his figures are deceptive - and we’ve done the homework to prove it. (09:09) As the heatwave rises to a crescendo, people are saying that wet bulb temperatures could hit critical levels. Utterly mystified? So was our editor, so we made this item to explain all to him (and you). (14:34) In a tournament with so many teams, we’ve had to consult a university professor to…
20 Jun 2026 · 9 min
Is the US worse than North Korea for malnutrition deaths?
This surprising claim was spotted circulating on social media: 'The United States has surpassed China and North Korea in deaths from malnutrition’. The claim used analysis from the Global Burden of Disease database for their sums. The data does indeed show that the US records more deaths from malnutrition than China and North Korea. The rate in the US was 2.8 deaths per 100,000 compared to just 1.7 deaths per 100,000 for North Korea. From what we know about the two countries this seems unlikely, so what’s going on here? We talk to Dr Krstina Newport, chief medical officer for the American…
17 Jun 2026 · 29 min
Does Europe suffer more heat deaths than the US?
Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week: (00:31) Claims have circulated on the internet that Europe sees a particularly high number of deaths from heat waves, especially when compared to the US. Can we really compare the statistics, and is air conditioning a silver bullet? (06:59) Sainsbury’s are making the switch from brown to white eggs, on the basis of claims about their carbon footprint - but how do you work this out? We talk to an egg man about eggs. A lot. (13:56) Are Conservative MPs frit? That’s what a Labour MP thinks after a recent PMQs saw no…
13 Jun 2026 · 9 min
Andrew Ross Sorkin: What can the Great Crash of 1929 tell us about today?
The financial journalist Andrew Ross Sorkin on the numbers behind the 1929 crash.The Great Crash of 1929 has faded into history, but financial journalist and author Andrew Ross Sorkin argues it holds vital lessons for today. Andrew came into the studio in London to discuss what we can understand about the crash in numbers, from ticker-tape running hours behind plunging stock prices to crucial metrics that sound the alarm bells before a financial crisis. Are they sounding today, in the middle of an AI stockmarket boom? Andrew's new book is '1929: Inside the Crash'. Presenter: Tim Harford…
10 Jun 2026 · 29 min
Education, Education, Education (and Immigration)
Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week: (00:32) The internet is abuzz with the claim that twenty-seven young migrants are hired for every British young person. We explore the truth behind this misleading claim. (08:40) Last year two nerds made a bet on our programme. Those nerds are Substacker Sam Freedman and Maxwell Marlow from the Adam Smith Institute, and they were betting on how the government’s introduction of VAT on school fees would affect pupil numbers. The results are in… (16:10) We revisit the topic of Welsh literacy after a raft of questions from…

About More or Less

Tim Harford explains - and sometimes debunks - the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life.

More or Less is a English society & culture podcast from BBC Radio 4. Melo plays each episode straight from the publisher's own feed — no ads added, no account needed — and remembers where you stopped, in this browser only.

Publisher: BBC Radio 4
Language: English
Category: Society & Culture
New episodes: Weekly
Typical length: 9 min
Latest episode: 14 Oct 2026
Feed: RSS — paste into any podcast app
Apple Podcasts: podcasts.apple.com/podcast/id267300884
Rights: (C) BBC 2026

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