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NAB Morning Call

by Phil Dobbie · English · News

Start your day with the NAB Morning Call for the latest overnight key economic and market information straight from our team of expert market economists and strategists. This includes perspective on overnight news and market price action and the forces shaping movements in Australian and global ma

New episodes: Daily
Typical length: 16 min
Latest: 14 Oct 2026
Language: English

Latest episode

14 Oct 2026 · 15 minNew

US Inflation surprise, markets ready for Aussie unemployment payback

Thursday 15th October 2026 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB NAB's Taylor Nugent joins Phil to break down the market fallout from higher-than-expected US CPI data, where headline inflation reaccelerated to 3.7%. The surprise print triggered an immediate knee-jerk reaction across asset classes—sending the US Dollar Index up half a percent, pushing equities lower (with the Nasdaq down 1.9%), and sparking a wild 14-basis-point intra-session spike in 2-year US Treasury yields before bond yields eventually retraced. Locally attention…

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Earlier episodes 29 most recent

S10 · E231 · 13 Oct 2026 · 16 minNew
RBA Rate Risks, Slump in Business Confidence, and the IMF's Sticky Inflation Warning
Wednesday 14th October 2026 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB In today's episode, Phil Dobbie and NAB Senior FX Strategist Ray Attrill unpack a challenging economic picture as global inflation pressures and tight monetary policy weigh on market sentiment. Domestically, the NAB Business Survey highlighted a sharp drop in business confidence alongside a slump in the employment index to a five-year low, while the RBA minutes underscored persistent capacity constraints—including AI data center energy demands—keeping further rate hikes…
S10 · E230 · 12 Oct 2026 · 14 minNew
The Chips Are Down Once More
Tuesday 13th October 2026 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Semiconductor stocks are taking a beating as competition from China and internal US pressures weigh heavily on tech, while oil prices continue their climb as the Middle East conflict flares and the energy ceasefire fails to hold. NAB's Rodrigo Catril joins Phil to break down the latest market turbulence. They analyse the rising US dollar and sliding Australian dollar, escalating fiscal concerns in France driving bond spreads wider, and what to expect from today's key local…
S10 · E229 · 11 Oct 2026 · 11 min
Middle East Escalation vs. Supply Deals: Energy Markets on Edge
Monday 12th October 2026 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB A fresh escalation of Middle East conflict is overshadowing energy markets after Houthi attacks on Riyadh’s airport, clashing with President Trump's announced US-Russia diesel agreement and reported Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire. On today’s edition of the NAB Morning Call, Phil Dobbie sits down with NAB’s Skye Masters to unpack the competing market drivers. They analyze the Friday rebound in global equities and lower bond yields, the latest CFTC positioning data showing…
S10 · E228 · 9 Oct 2026 · 34 min
Weekend Edition: Australia’s Rental Paradox
Friday 9th October 2026 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Australia’s housing market continues to present a puzzling contradiction: despite record-low vacancy rates and a severe structural shortage of housing, rental price growth has stalled—and in major cities like Sydney and Canberra, house rents are actually falling. On this weekend edition of the NAB Morning Call, Phil speaks with Dr. Nicola Powell, Chief Residential Economist at Domain, to unpack the underlying forces shaping the…
S10 · E227 · 8 Oct 2026 · 12 min
Meanwhile, back in the Gulf
Friday 9th October 2026 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Risk-off sentiment dominated global markets as geopolitical tensions flared in the Persian Gulf. On today’s edition of the NAB Morning Call, NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to discuss a turbulent session sparked by an attack on an oil tanker near Qatar, which sent Brent crude surging toward $104 a barrel alongside hurricane-related production cut. Energy cost spikes and tech sector drags—amplified by OpenAI revenue concerns and potential US visa restrictions—weighed heavily on…
S10 · E226 · 7 Oct 2026 · 15 min
Oil Drifts Lower, French Yields Rocket
Thursday 8th October 2026 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Oil drifts lower, French yields rocket, and the FOMC minutes reveal a Federal Reserve that is far from done worrying about inflation. Phil is joined by NAB’s Ray Attrill who says the newly released FOMC minutes are a little more dovish than anticipated, whilst the NY Fed’s consume inflation expectations pushed higher. Meanwhile fiscal strain in France is pushing bond spreads wider across the Eurozone, and Brent crude has slipped back under $100 a barrel despite another sharp…
S10 · E225 · 6 Oct 2026 · 17 min
Le Pen Is Mightier Than the Deficit
Wednesday 7th October 2026 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The S&P 500 has notched its first fresh all-time high since August, supported by optimism ahead of the Q3 earnings season and steadying US Treasury yields. On today’s edition of the NAB Morning Call, Phil is joined by NAB’s Gavin Friend to dissect the market moves—starting with a sharp pullback in French bond yields after far-right National Rally leader Marine Le Pen pledged a "golden rule" deficit reduction plan to stabilize public finances. The pair also explore the…
S10 · E224 · 5 Oct 2026 · 15 min
US jobs soft, but yields are still rising
Tuesday 6th October 2026 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US equity markets kicked off the week with solid gains as the tech sector pushed higher, but fixed income markets continued to grapple with elevated yields as US 10-year Treasuries pushed up to 5.34%. Following a long weekend in parts of Australia, Phil Dobbie and NAB's Taylor Nugent unpack a busy start to October, analysing Friday's softer-than-expected US Non-Farm Payrolls print (+28k) and its impact on Fed rate expectations. Across the Atlantic, European markets are…
S10 · E223 · 2 Oct 2026 · 32 min
Weekend Edition: A Brighter Take On AI
Friday 2nd October 2026 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . As artificial intelligence rapidly transforms from a speculative tech trend into the primary driver of global market returns, how are institutional investors actually positioning their capital for the road ahead? This Phil Dobbie sits down with Damien Webb, Chief Investment Officer for Brighter Super, fresh off an insightful trip to Silicon Valley meeting with frontier AI labs, quantum computing founders, and top academic minds.…
S1 · E222 · 1 Oct 2026 · 17 min
"Sacré-Cœur!
Friday 2nd October 2026 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB France's escalating budget woes and fiscal watchdog criticism have sent sovereign bond markets into a tizzy, causing French-German yield spreads to widen sharply. On today's edition of the NAB Morning Call, Phil Dobbie and NAB's Ken Crompton break down these mixed global signals—from France's budget strain to rising US manufacturing prices and mortgage rates hitting 7.28%. Despite lower US Treasury yields following a brief flight to quality, the US dollar remains firm while…
S10 · E221 · 30 Sep 2026 · 14 min
It's All About Inflation
Thursday 1st October 2026 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Global financial markets are navigating a sharp divergence between the US and Europe, driven entirely by conflicting inflation trends. On today’s edition of the NAB Morning Call, Phil Dobbie speaks with NAB’s Skye Masters to unpack why resilient US economic data, cooler-than-expected Core PCE prints, and upward GDP revisions are supporting Wall Street, even as 10-year Treasury yields push toward 5.30%. In contrast, hot European inflation prints across Germany and France are…
S10 · E220 · 29 Sep 2026 · 17 min
RBA back on the narrow path
Wednesday 30th September 2026 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s unanimous decision to raise the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60%, market attention has shifted to Governor Michele Bullock’s post-meeting press conference. NAB's Taylor Nugent says her commentary hinted that the RBA may be returning to its "narrow path" balancing inflation control against labour market conditions, softening some of the hawkish expectations for follow-up hikes. Meanwhile, global bond yields continue their…
S10 · E219 · 28 Sep 2026 · 17 min
Rates, bonds and oil – how high can they go
Tuesday 29th September 2026 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB As crude oil holds above $105 a barrel and US 10-year Treasury yields surge to 5.24%, markets are grappling with how much further central banks can push policy rates to restrain persistent inflation. On today’s podcast Phil talks with NAB Chief Economist Sally Auld ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia's rate decision. Sally notes that while US growth resilience and structural Capex demand are driving global yields higher, Australia’s cooling PMIs and softening business…
S10 · E218 · 27 Sep 2026 · 15 min
Another open and shut case
Monday 28th September 2026 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Donald Trunp has knocked back Iran’s proposal that could have seen the Strait of Hormuz reopen within seven-days. Instead, the US President believes economic sanctions will ultimately have the desired outcome. So, does that mean oil prices will bounce higher this morning? NAB’s Ray Attrill says the volatility will continue, but news this morning suggesting talks are ongoing might temper any negative sentiment. It’s a busy week ahead with the RBA decision tomorrow, CPI…
S10 · E217 · 25 Sep 2026 · 32 min
Weekend edition: Living beyond the goats cheese curtain
Friday 25th September 2026 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . The hipsters live inside the goat’s cheese curtain before they start a family and move to the burbs in search of their quarter acre block. That’s the traditional pattern of life in Australia, but demographer Bernard Salt, from the Demographics Group, says major changes are afoot. Fertility rates of younger people are falling faster than expected, and people are living longer than forecast. It’s not an Australia-only phenomenon…
S10 · E216 · 24 Sep 2026 · 16 min
The V Word
Friday 25th September 2026 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The "V" word is firmly back on the agenda as geopolitical friction, soaring energy prices, and relentless sovereign yield pressures inject fresh ‘volatility’ across global markets. This morning Phil and NAB’s Taylor Nugent break down the forces driving crude oil back over $106 a barrel as Red Sea insurance premiums soar and Middle East tensions escalate. Meanwhile, sovereign bond markets continue their dramatic bear steepening amid a persistent chorus of hawkish Fed…
S10 · E215 · 23 Sep 2026 · 18 min
PMIs push bond yields higher, AUD a victim
Thursday 24th September 2026 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The US dollar and global bond yields have risen sharply. NAB’s Ray Attrill says a bit part of this was stronger than expected PMIs, particularly for the US. It shows demand isn’t falling, whilst oil supplies remain a concern. So much of a concern that the US is limiting diesel exports to shore-up its domestic supplies. The US is attempting to bring down longer dated yields with a $6 billion buyback today. Phil asks, if it didn’t work last time, what will be different now?…
S10 · E214 · 22 Sep 2026 · 14 min
Trump talks oil down
Wednesday 23rd September 2026 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Oil is now trading below $100 after President Trump says talk have gone well with Iran during the UN General Assembly in New York, with more talks scheduled I’n the near future’. NAB’s Ken Crompton says news of the east-west Saudi pipeline reopening has also helped. Markets have ignored the more extreme language of ‘annihilating’ the Republic if talks don’t go well. And what of Michelle Bullock’s fireside chat? ‘Well, it’s inflation that’s on fire,’ says Ken on today’s…
S10 · E213 · 21 Sep 2026 · 13 min
Momentarily below 100
Tuesday 22nd September 2026 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Oil ticked below $99 momentarily overnight. NAB’s Skye Masters says reports of more traffic through the Strait have helped, along with a comment from the US president that he wlll ‘probably’ talk with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian at the UN Assembly this week/ But oil doesn’t want to stay below 100. Falling oil prices have helped bring down European bond yields. In a quiet session data wise there’s been much focus on comments from Chicago Fed chair Austan Goolsbee…
S10 · E212 · 20 Sep 2026 · 16 min
Markets not convinced by BoJ hike
Monday 21st September 2026 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Even though the Bank of Japan lifted rates, as widely anticipated, the Yen lost ground on Friday. NAB’s Sally Auld says the 7-2 vote split was responsible for the caution, particularly as the two dissenters were recent government appointees. There’s also speculation of currency intervention, although Sally questions the logic of that right now. Instability in European politics has seen swift movement in bond yields. Over the weekend the Greenland deal and Ukraine’s largest…
S10 · E211 · 18 Sep 2026 · 30 min
Weekend Edition: Red, Blue, or Deadlock? Michael Townsend on implications of the US midterms
Friday 18th September 2026 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . With the US midterm elections looming and the threat of Republican losses hanging over Capitol Hill, how much should investors actually care about a potential shift in congressional power? This weekend on the NAB Morning Call, Phil speaks with Michael Townsend, Managing Director of Legislative and Regulatory Affairs at Charles Schwab and host of the Washington Wise podcast, to break down the realistic market fallout of an…
S10 · E210 · 17 Sep 2026 · 16 min
Bouncing back
Friday 18th September 2026 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets have shrugged off their early response to the hawkish press conference from Kevin Warsh yesterday. NAB’s Ken Crompton says the unwound started soon after the initial response, with bond yields falling and shares recovering. Both have been helped by a further reduction in oil prices, on hopes of resumed Saudi supply through their east-west pipeline. Ken and Phil also talk about the Bank of England yesterday and the assumption that the Bank of Japan will lift rates…
S10 · E209 · 16 Sep 2026 · 16 min
Fed all in agreement on hike, more to come
Thursday 17th September 2026 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB A unanimous decision from the Fed to lift rates and, a s NAB’s Ray Attrilll explains, at least one more rate hike seems likely this year. The market response was fairly muted initially after the short statement talked about how the resilience in the economy was adding to the supply-side inflation worries, but it was Kevin Warsh’s press conference that drew the biggest response. So what did he say? Meanwhile the Bank of England is expected to keep interest rates on hold…
S10 · E208 · 15 Sep 2026 · 15 min
Higher and Higher
Wednesday16th September 2026 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Bond yields are still at multi-year highs, driven by inflation concerns, in turn driven by oil prices, which are still rising, alongside expectations for rate hikes from central banks. NAB’s Skye Masters says markets have almost fully priced in a rate hike from the Fed tomorrow morning (our time) but there will be interest in the dots plot (whilst it’s still a thing) to determine future moves. Phil and Skye also look at the rise in Japanese Government Bonds Yields. As…
S10 · E207 · 14 Sep 2026 · 13 min
More of the same
Tuesday 15th September 2026 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Rising bond yields, rising oil prices, bond yields higher. Today is a repetition of yesterday as the same pressures drive markets - the Middle East, AI growth concerns, inflation fears and central bank expectations. NAB’s Sally Auld joins Phil to discuss market reactions and where she thinks expectations might be a little over-egged. Why, for example, asks Phil, is the market expecting hikes from the Bank of Canada this week when yesterday’s data shows inflation seems to…
S10 · E206 · 13 Sep 2026 · 13 min
Slowdown!
Monday 14th September 2026 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s curious that the CEO of a major AI platform argues that AI development should be slowed down in case it causes serious problems, when that same company has its sights set on a share market listing. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril makes that point on today’s podcast with Phil, as they also examine the impact of Friday’s higher than expected inflation read from the US. And the rising uncertainty for middle east oil supplies. And should we take Canada seriously when they talk about…
S10 · E205 · 11 Sep 2026 · 32 min
Weekend Edition: Australia’s Place in the AI Race: Passenger or Pioneer?
Friday 11th September 2026 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . As global capital expenditure on artificial intelligence climbs toward $1.8 trillion, Australia finds itself at a pivotal crossroads between world-class research and commercial execution. On this weekend’s NAB Morning Call, Phil Dobbie sits down with former CSIRO Chief Executive Dr. Larry Marshall to examine whether the nation is poised to pioneer high-value AI solutions or remain a passive consumer of overseas technology.…
S10 · E204 · 10 Sep 2026 · 14 min
No brainer
Friday 11th September 2026 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB At a press conference overnight ECB’s Christine Lagarde said it was a ‘no brainer’ to lift rates, given the inflation pressures and a resilient economy. More is expected according to NAB’s Skye Masters, who joins Phil on this morning’s podcast. They discuss the two big moves overnight - oil prices, now well beyond $100 a barrel - and the continued rise in bond yields, with 10 year treasuries rising by 11 basis points and 30 years hitting the highest level since 2007. With…
S10 · E203 · 9 Sep 2026 · 14 min
Buybacks and battles - big moves in oil and bond yields
Thursday 10th September 2026 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Oil prices rose further overnight as Iran fired at US navy vessels, forcing counter attacks from both sides. One Iranian official described it as an existential fight for survival for which there is no backing down. Bond yields rose sharply in the US and Europe overnight, despite Scott Bessen t’s announcement of a $6 billion buyback in 10–20-year bonds. NAB’s Sally Auld says yields rose because the size of the buyback was less than expected, whilst the same factors remain…

About NAB Morning Call

NAB Morning Call is a English news podcast from Phil Dobbie. Melo plays each episode straight from the publisher's own feed — no ads added, no account needed — and remembers where you stopped, in this browser only.

Publisher: Phil Dobbie
Language: English
Category: News
New episodes: Daily
Typical length: 16 min
Latest episode: 14 Oct 2026
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