September WASDE: USDA's Struggle Session

More from RaboResearch Agri Commodities All episodes →

1. 

   16 Oct 2023 · 12 min

   Bulls feed on old grain

   The October WASDE was viewed as a bullish report by the market, with corn, soy, and wheat futures all rising following its release. For corn in particular, it was higher old crop feed demand that caught the market by surprise. Meanwhile, for wheat markets, we saw 2023/24 estimations for both global production and trade trimmed. Please read our disclaimer here: https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417272/disclaimer

2. 

   30 Jun 2023 · 11 min

   Softs Rally Hard

   Since the start of the year we have seen simultaneous rallies in sugar (+15%), cocoa (+28%), and robusta coffee (+47%). This is rather unusual given these three commodities have very different fundamentals and are produced in very different countries. The threat of El Niño-related weather challenges is the one common element that has led to speculators increasing their long bets across these three commodities. In this podcast, commodity analysts Paul Joules and Carlos Mera discuss the outlook going forward. Please read our disclaimer here:…

3. 

   13 Apr 2023 · 7 min

   April WASDE: USDA Cuts Argentine Yields

   With minimum alterations for most countries, the April WASDE's main talking point was cuts in Argentine production for soybeans, wheat, and corn amid the ongoing drought. As these cuts were expected, we saw little price action following the report's release. Eyes will now turn to next month's WASDE, which will provide the first estimates of the 2023/24 season. Please read our disclaimer here: https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417272/disclaimer

4. 

   6 Dec 2022 · 14 min

   Outlook 2023: Tightening the Belt

   Join Carlos Mera and Michael Magdovitz for a look at the year ahead in ACMR's latest podcast. 2022 held unprecedented volatility for agricultural commodity markets, from the Russian invasion of Ukraine to La Niña drought across South America. Consumers suffered through a third year of an agricultural bull market. It could very well be the last. Rabobank expects broad-based price relief in 2023 as weak consumer demand and more normal weather combine to revive supplies. Please read our disclaimer here: https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417272/disclaimer

5. 

   13 Oct 2022 · 10 min

   October 2022 WASDE: USDA Scissorhands

   On the latest RaboResearch Agri Commodities podcast, Carlos Mera and Michael Magdovitz discuss the October WASDE report. Poor 2022/23 US grain and oilseed harvests are forcing the USDA to become increasingly adept with scissors. As it cuts production, the USDA must increasingly (and tragically) cut demand to prevent ending stockpiles from disappearing. Relative to expectations, the report was bearish on corn and bullish on soy, and it resulted in funds partially unwinding their corn/soy spread. The prime takeaway is that supply inflation is being increasingly controlled by weak,…

6. 

   16 Aug 2022 · 15 min

   Momentum

   On the latest ACMR podcast, Senior Analyst Michael Magdovitz and Analyst Paul Joules discuss the recent price movements in CBOT Corn, Wheat, and Soybean futures. Tune in to hear about the 2022/23 harvests, the latest WASDE report, funds bouncing back, and overarching demand-side concerns. From a supply standpoint, heavy heat across the US and Europe poses a significant risk to feed grain and oilseed production. For wheat, recent production improvements among exporters are slightly bearish ; the USDA 's estimate of an 88m mt Russia n crop (+6.5m mt MOM) in particular implies a low-cost…

7. 

   15 Jul 2022 · 17 min

   Funds in the Sun

   Head of Agri Commodities Markets Research Carlos Mera and Senior Analyst Michael Magdovitz discuss the recent pullback in CBOT Corn, Wheat, and Soybean prices. Tune in to hear about recent bearish dynamics: speculative capitulation, the worsening macroeconomic backdrop, shrinking demand, and the potential for a sea route for Ukrainian supplies. From a supply standpoint, however, fundamentals are strong. Reserves for next year are set to remain well below historical averages, and heat is a major concern for developing northern hemisphere crops. Furthermore, long-repressed consumer demand is…

8. 

   28 Feb 2022 · 16 min

   High G&O Prices Will Shrink China's Imports and Demand

   Join Rabobank's Grains & Oilseeds Analyst in China, Lief Chiang, and ACMR's Michael Magdovitz as they discuss the factors behind the high-price environment in G&O and what it means for China's feed demand. Please read our disclaimer here: https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417272/disclaimer

9. 

   1 Feb 2022 · 16 min

   The Ukraine Metacrisis and Its Impact on Agri Commodity Markets

   Russia has been amassing troops around the Ukrainian border and making demands NATO cannot afford to meet. A potential invasion with far-reaching consequences for key agricultural commodities like wheat, barley, corn, and sunflower oil cannot be ruled out. A retaliatory blanket embargo could result in even higher agri commodity prices. Given the inelasticity of demand, wheat prices in particular could double, as Turkey, the Middle East, and northern Africa struggle to source wheat from elsewhere. Please read more about the Ukraine Metacrisis and visit our F&A research website for more…

10. 

    21 Dec 2021 · 12 min

    Agri Commodities Outlook 2022, Part 2: Softs

    Soft commodities have seen a price surge in 2021, with coffee topping the price change charts. Join ACMR's Carlos Mera and Michael Magdovitz as they discuss the risks for coffee and sugar in 2022. Looking ahead, the development of La Niña in Brazil will be key for these commodities, while the container situation will be especially relevant for coffee. Please read our disclaimer here: https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417272/disclaimer