The Competent Investor brings you deep-dive conversations with the world's top investors, economists, and market strategists. Every episode unpacks the macro forces shaping markets, reveals actionable insights, and delivers conversations that compound your understanding of where capital is flowing.
Jaime Carrasco, Senior Portfolio Manager at Harbourfront Wealth Management, argues that rising global interest rates signal a deepening credit crisis rather than a healthy economy, likening the situation to water overwhelming the Titanic. He views the current pullback in gold prices not as a weakness but as a strategic opportunity to build positions, emphasizing that central banks continue to accumulate physical gold as a hedge against the ongoing debasement of fiat currencies. Carrasco contends that the real problem is not assets becoming more valuable but the purchasing power of money…
Porter Stansberry warns that the United States is on an irreversible path toward a major fiscal and societal crisis by 2029, drawing a historical parallel to the downfall of the Knights Templar. He explains that when a sovereign becomes insolvent, it inevitably turns on its creditors, and the largest creditor to the U.S. government is not bondholders but the recipients of unfunded Social Security promises. The root of this decay, he argues, is the abandonment of the gold standard, which has enabled unchecked money printing and triggered the Cantillon effect—where newly created currency flows…
Tom welcomes back trader Tony Greer to the show. Tony describes the current market as one of the most challenging environments he's ever navigated. He explains that a "perfect storm" of colliding weather systems is making trading exceptionally difficult. Elevated energy prices, driven by conflict with Iran and a persistently high diesel crack spread, are causing real-world inflation that isn't fully captured in headline data. This is exerting immense pressure on the bond market, which has broken out of a long-standing range to the downside, sending yields sharply higher. Greer points out…
In this discussion, global forecaster David Murrin outlines his view that conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East, and the Pacific are not isolated but a coordinated confrontation between democracies and an axis of autocracy led by China. He traces China's rise to a multi-decade strategy developed after the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis, which involved seducing the West into moving its industrial base to China. This was coupled with systematic intellectual property theft and a military buildup, including island bases and anti-ship ballistic missiles designed to push U.S. aircraft carriers beyond…
Peter Alexander, an American investor with 30 years of on-the-ground experience in China, argues that Western perceptions are polarized and often miss the nuance of China’s strategic direction. He was prompted to speak publicly by a sense of civic duty, seeing a need for a more balanced, non-conventional perspective amid a debate dominated by collapse narratives or hegemonic rivalry. Alexander traces the shift in American attitudes from indifference to resentment after the 2008 global financial crisis and the Trump era, noting that China’s resilience-focused policies—like massive debt…
Rick Rule, president and CEO of Rule Investment Media, argues that a sustained decline in the purchasing power of the US dollar is inevitable due to the staggering $40 trillion in on-balance-sheet and $120 trillion in off-balance-sheet liabilities. He explains that while short-term interest rate hikes may temporarily strengthen the dollar, the political class will ultimately choose to inflate away these obligations rather than default, setting the stage for a replay of the 1970s inflationary era. In this environment, he positions physical gold as the primary savings defense, with…
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back former Wall Street analyst John Rubino for a discussion on the incoherence between Federal Reserve and Treasury policies, with the Fed signaling possible rate hikes while the Treasury intervenes to suppress long-term yields. Rubino argues this contradictory approach signals a loss of confidence in fiat currencies and points toward a global debt spiral, exacerbated by $10 trillion in U.S. debt refinancing this year and reduced foreign demand, particularly from Japan. He sees precious metals as ultimate beneficiaries once governments resort to aggressive yield curve…
Graham Summers, President and Chief Market Strategist for Phoenix Capital Research, discussed the complex state of the bond market, noting the historic shift as the 40-year bull market in bonds ended in 2022. He analyzed Treasury Secretary Bessent’s recent increase in bond buybacks to $6 billion per auction, interpreting it primarily as a verbal intervention to maintain stability and signal support rather than a massive quantitative easing program. Summers stressed that while rising yields and national debt exceeding 100% of GDP are noteworthy, the situation remains orderly and not yet…
Tom welcomes back Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, Mike McGlone for a discussion on the outlook for energy, metals, and the broader macro markets. Diesel prices at all-time highs, driven by geopolitical disruptions and refining bottlenecks, are likely unsustainable. McGlone pointed to natural gas as a leading indicator: the January futures contract, the apex of the curve, has declined this year despite a supply glut, signaling downward pressure ahead for diesel, gasoline, and crude oil. The U.S. has become a massive net energy exporter, with record production and…
In this conversation, Tom Bodrovics and Doomberg explore the geopolitical and energy market implications of the ongoing Ukraine war, with a focus on the diesel crisis and Europe’s precarious energy dependence. Doomberg argues that the primary driver of elevated diesel prices is not the Iran conflict but Ukraine’s systematic attacks on Russian refinery assets, which reduce global refining capacity and tighten distillate markets. He notes the irony that Europe, heavily reliant on diesel imports, is among the most exposed to these price spikes. While the world is adapting through higher…
Chase Taylor, global macro strategist at Pinecone Macro, analyzed the recent Treasury bond market intervention, characterizing it as an unforced error that inadvertently signaled a shift toward yield curve control. The initial modest buyback program quickly escalated into a commitment to use the Treasury General Account to cap long-term yields, undermining the Federal Reserve’s earlier stance and damaging joint credibility. This intervention, combined with ongoing geopolitical tensions, has intensified inflationary pressures. Taylor highlighted diesel prices as a critical driver, with…
Hedge fund manager Chris MacIntosh offers a stark assessment of the current financial system, arguing it is held together by the immense power to manipulate credit through front-end Treasury yields. This power, however, is reaching its limits. He identifies three interconnected bubbles propped up by this manipulation: the AI-driven equity bubble, a massive private credit bubble, and the foundational sovereign debt bubble. The long end of the bond market, which central banks cannot easily control, is signaling a significant shift, with rising long-term yields threatening to unravel the entire…
Recorded on: August 19, 2026 Your host, Tom Bodrovics welcomes back the market sniper himself Francis Hunt to the show. Francis Hunt is the Renegade Trader, Analyst, and the Founder of The Market Sniper. The discussion centers on a dramatic gold price surge and the underlying debt market distress. Hunt explains that the Federal Reserve is cornered, unable to maneuver as major holders like Japan face a “Hotel California” scenario with U.S. Treasuries unable to sell without triggering a crash, forced instead into repurchase agreements. This debt debasement, he argues, is a Western malaise,…
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Chris Vermeulen to the show. Chris Vermeulen is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer at 'The Technical Traders'. Chris discusses the broadening of the stock market, with the MAG 7 stocks losing momentum and money rotating into other sectors like semiconductors and small caps. He sees this as a sign of strength, with the market potentially poised for one more big push higher. Chris analyzes the technical indicators, noting the positive price action, bullish moving average trends, and improving sentiment. Regarding gold and silver, Chris is cautious, viewing the…
David Hunter, Chief Macro Strategist with Contrarian Macro Advisors, maintains his highly bullish short-term outlook for equities, believing the stock market is in the final stages of a 44-year secular bull market that began in 1982. He anticipates a "melt-up" that could drive the S&P 500 to 10,000 and the NASDAQ to 36,000, representing a 30-35% gain compressed into just a few months. He attributes this potential surge not to new liquidity creation, but to existing capital being deployed as market momentum and shifting investor psychology overcome current cautious narratives. Hunter presents…
Your host Tom Bodrovics, welcomes investor Eric Yeung, and Gold Fix partner Vince Lanci to discuss recent structural changes in China’s gold market, arguing that reports of China ending retail gold trading are inaccurate. Yeung clarifies that as of July 24, Chinese commercial banks are halting leveraged and forward gold contracts for retail customers on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE). This move does not eliminate these instruments but relocates them to the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) and the new Hong Kong Gold Hub. The goal is to solidify the SGE as a predominantly physical delivery…
Luke Gromen, president of Forest For The Trees, discussed the challenging fiscal and monetary landscape facing the US once again with your host Tom Bodrovics. With national debt at $39.5 trillion and rising rates, Federal Reserve Chair Worsh confronts a constrained choice: allow treasury market dysfunction or weaken the dollar to manage mounting debt. Gromen argued that shifting issuance to the front end, including discussions around stablecoins, effectively cash-finances deficits, which is inherently inflationary. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Bessent is embracing Hamiltonian economics—high…
Rick Rule shared his observations from his recent Rule Symposium investment conference, noting a stark contrast in sentiment between different types of precious metals investors. Seasoned, wealthy participants who save in gold welcomed the 30% price decline as a buying opportunity, while newer adherents were unnerved. Among the high-quality exhibitors, there was uniform optimism, with the best companies and projects finding ample access to capital despite a widely advertised shortage in the junior space. This capital is increasingly coming from sophisticated sources like majors and family…
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back commodity market specialist Rory Johnston for his analysis of the volatile state of the global oil market, focusing on the Strait of Hormuz, Chinese demand, and refining capacity disruptions. Johnston explains that following a recent memorandum of understanding, there was a temporary surge in oil transits through Hormuz as stranded tankers were released, creating a short-lived mini-glut that depressed prices. However, this flow has since collapsed again due to renewed kinetic attacks between Iran and the United States, effectively closing the strait once more and…
Tom welcomes Melody Wright, a housing analyst and strategist to the show. Melody describes the U.S. housing market as entering its fourth year of a "frozen" state, with combined annual sales volumes comparable to 2008 levels despite a 20% population increase. National statistics mask significant regional disparities: home prices are declining in the South and West, while the Northeast and Midwest are beginning to weaken. This stagnation stems from a severe affordability crisis, where median home prices far exceed the sustainable benchmark of three times household median income, inflated by…
In this interview, your host Tom Bodrovics and senior portfolio manager Jaime Carrasco analyze the recent volatility in precious metals, framing it as a typical and expected part of a secular bull market driven by a fundamental global monetary shift. Carrasco argues that gold is money and everything else is credit, with the current fiat currency system in terminal decline. He points to rising global interest rates not as an attractive yield but as a signal of bond market instability, exacerbated by soaring government debt and aging populations. This environment is devaluing all fiat…
Veteran commodities trader John Johnston, also known as JJ, provides a detailed rebuttal to the prevailing narratives of oil market scarcity, arguing that the recent price volatility was a paper-driven phenomenon disconnected from physical realities. He explains that the price spike to $120 in March was fueled by the purchase of 750 million barrels worth of futures contracts in a short period, a massive speculative position that has been unwinding for weeks, pressuring prices. In reality, inventories were at near-record highs entering the conflict, with little actual disruption to supply.…
Recorded on: June 29, 2026 Jesse Felder highlights a striking divergence in oil markets: physical inventories, including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, have plunged to multi-decade lows while demand hits records, yet institutional investors hold the most bearish positioning ever. This contrarian setup is amplified by the AI frenzy, which has drained interest from energy—despite the sector’s strong five-year performance. Insider buying in exploration and production (E&P) companies and an absence of commercial hedging signal confidence in sustainably higher prices. Felder argues that a…
Tom welcomes investor Robert Sinn to the show. Robert attributes the recent sharp sell-off in the gold and mining sector primarily to a strengthening US dollar and rising interest rates, describing the current environment as a "perfect negative storm" for junior miners. He notes that sentiment has reached extreme negative levels, comparable to the March 2020 and October 2022 lows, with technical indicators like the gold miner bull index hitting zero. Sinn suggests these oversold conditions, combined with improving seasonal trends, may be setting the stage for a tradable low, presenting…
Steve St. Angelo, founder of the SRSRocco Report, discussed a wide range of fundamental factors impacting precious metals, energy, and the broader economy, cautioning against sensationalist price targets. He argued that the recent parabolic surge in gold and silver, driven by massive FOMO, leverage, and specific narratives like a supposed Chinese export ban, has resulted in a necessary consolidation phase. Current margins for miners are historically high, but a correction is likely not over, with technical gaps suggesting potential downside to $3,500 gold and $55 silver, especially during a…
Lobo Tiggre, author and founder of the Independent Speculator, joined your host Tom Bodrovics to discuss the complex interplay of geopolitics, monetary policy, and commodity markets. Lobo argued that the war in the Middle East, while not inherently inflationary, fuels inflation through the government’s response—specifically, massive deficit spending and money printing to finance the conflict. He warned that this pattern of "profligacy" historically dethrones currencies and ends empires, placing new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh in an impossible position between political pressure to cut rates and…
Michael Green, Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager for Simplify Asset Management, presents a contrarian view on bonds, arguing they are now an attractive investment due to three factors. First, the dominance of passive bond indices creates mechanical distortions, as market-cap weighting leads to misallocation during interest rate changes, undermining price discovery. Second, broad inflation has largely ended, with demographics and high short-term rates pushing conditions toward deflation, while many confuse ongoing price-level increases with inflation. Third, equities face high valuations…
Craig Tindale argues that the current global instability stems from humanity's tendency to mistake its complex models for reality. He explains that systems like central banking and globalized supply chains were built on narrow metrics, such as price efficiency, while ignoring broader consequences like sovereignty and resilience. This "delusional" approach led to the offshoring of industrial capacity, creating critical dependencies that are now being exposed. He draws a parallel with climate models, noting how specialized scientific silos fail to capture integrated system dynamics, such as…
Michael Kao, a former hedge fund manager and commodities trader, joined host Tom Bodrovics to discuss his view that the economy is walking a tightrope between two starkly different outcomes. Kao outlined a framework with four macro quadrants, defining a "Goldilocks" scenario of disinflationary growth and a "stagflationary" environment of slow growth with high inflation. His original thesis for the Trump 2.0 playbook anticipated the Goldilocks path, powered by AI-driven productivity and reshoring initiatives he calls a "reverse Marshall Plan," which could reduce the deficit much like the…
Francis Hunt, founder of The Market Sniper, presents a technical analysis centered on South Korea as a potential early indicator of a coming AI bubble deflation. He highlights the KOSPI index's extreme 291% surge in just over a year, driven almost entirely by two chip-making giants, Samsung and SK Hynix, which now constitute roughly 50% of the market. This narrow, unsustainable rally is occurring simultaneously with a critical divergence: foreign professional money is flowing out of South Korean equities, while the void is being filled by a massive surge in domestic retail margin debt. This…
About The Competent Investor
The Competent Investor brings you deep-dive conversations with the world's top investors, economists, and market strategists. Every episode unpacks the macro forces shaping markets, reveals actionable insights, and delivers conversations that compound your understanding of where capital is flowing.
The Competent Investor is a English business podcast from Tom Bodrovics. Melo plays each episode straight from the publisher's own feed — no ads added, no account needed — and remembers where you stopped, in this browser only.
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