The Real Eisman Playbook is your front-row seat to the insights, strategies, and perspectives of legendary investor Steve Eisman. Best known for predicting the 2008 financial crisis, Steve brings his sharp analysis and no-nonsense approach to dissecting the markets, global economy, and…
On episode 78 of The Real Eisman Playbook, Steve Eisman sits down with Krishna Guha, Evercore's Fed watcher, to break down why the ten-year yield has marched from 4.5% to over 5%. He explains that it's a perfect storm of AI debt issuance crowding out Treasuries, war-driven oil prices, the massive deficit, and Kevin Warsh's deliberate withdrawal of the forward guidance guardrails that previous Fed chairs used. They also discuss Scott Bessent's bond buyback program and close with a fun ranking of Fed chairs. 00:00 - Intro 00:42 - Why Were Rates Raised? 03:31 - Kevin Warsh’s Changes 11:43 - The…
Sign up for The Real Eisman Playbook Premium at https://realeismanplaybook.substack.com/ On this episode of The Weekly Wrap, Steve Eisman covers a dramatic week for FICO, in which its decades-long mortgage monopoly effectively broke. Steve then delivers a deep dive into private equity's overexposure to software buyouts, why the SAASpocalypse has cut valuations by 50% or more, and why the refinancing wall coming in 2027 will likely wipe out equity in many of these deals. He closes with three mailbag questions covering oil-driven inflation, AI regulation, and how the Moody's securitization…
On episode 77 of The Real Eisman Playbook, Steve Eisman sits down with Sam Badri, Head of Investor Relations at Cisco, for an inside look at what the AI boom actually looks like from within a major technology company. Sam explains why he believes we are still very early in AI adoption, with roughly 90% of users stuck at the basic prompt stage and very few having progressed to skills files or AI agents. 00:00 - Intro & Sam’s Background 03:35 - What Cisco Does 05:58 - Cisco Revenue Growth & What’s Changed 12:40 - How AI Factors In 14:18 - Cisco vs Arista 16:04 - The Negativity Surrounding the…
Sign up for The Real Eisman Playbook Premium at https://realeismanplaybook.substack.com/ On this episode of The Weekly Wrap, Steve Eisman discusses why the off-balance sheet financing techniques that caused Enron's collapse and amplified the GFC are back in full force in the AI world. He also covers the Ten Year yield breaching 5.1%, Paramount being cleared for takeoff with WB, troubling news from Oracle & Blue Owl, Meta's Muse agentic AI agent, and much more. 00:00 - Intro 02:42 - War in Iran, Oil Prices, & Interest Rates 03:43 - Troubling News From Oracle & Blue Owl 04:29 - Paramount…
Sign up for The Real Eisman Playbook Premium at https://realeismanplaybook.substack.com/ On episode 76 of The Real Eisman Playbook, Steve Eisman sits down with George Noble, former portfolio manager at Fidelity and now a Substack newsletter writer, for a wide-ranging conversation covering Scott Bessent's attempt to repress interest rates, the yen carry trade, the Tesla/SpaceX struggles, and much more. 00:00 - Intro 01:18 - Scott Bessent & Interest Rates 13:00 - The AI Ecosystem 21:35 - The Dollar Yen Trade 30:57 - The Current Investing Environment 36:33 - Tesla & SpaceX 46:14 - Outro…
Sign up for The Real Eisman Playbook Premium at https://realeismanplaybook.substack.com/ On this episode of The Weekly Wrap, Steve Eisman explains why the recent extinction warnings from Dario Amodei and Sam Altman are not genuine concerns about superintelligence, but rather a deliberate shell game designed to invite government regulation and create pricing moats. Steve also covers the Fed raising rates 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4%, the Senate blocking the Clarity Act, an update on his FICO short, and answers two mailbags on how individual investors can diversify away from AI…
On episode 75 of The Real Eisman Playbook, Steve Eisman sits down with his former Big Short partners Vincent Daniel and Porter Collins for a wide-ranging conversation covering the bond market, Scott Bessent's Treasury buyback program, the OpenAI risk, gold, and more. They also pull back the curtain on the mechanics of modern hedge fund shorting and share two live short ideas. 00:00 - Intro 00:50 - Scott Bessent & the Treasury 12:57 - AI 21:55 - Shorting 38:10 - Golar & Glass House 45:21 - Last Words Subscribe 👉🏻https://www.youtube.com/@RealEismanPlaybook?sub_confirmation=1 Connect with…
Sign up for The Real Eisman Playbook Premium at https://realeismanplaybook.substack.com/ On this episode of The Weekly Wrap, Steve Eisman breaks down the ten-year yield breaching 4.9%, the recent AI doomsday fears, OpenAI's surprise price cut on its latest model, Oracle's strong 30% revenue growth, Tesla's disappointing robotaxi event that sent the stock down 6%, and much more! 00:00 - Intro 02:51 - Iran War Updates 03:33 - Scott Bessent 06:59 - Will AI Destroy Us All? 08:57 - Tesla's Robotaxi Announcement Disappoints 10:22 - The Ed Zitron Interview 13:14 - OpenAI Cuts Their Prices 14:40 -…
Sign up for The Real Eisman Playbook Premium at https://realeismanplaybook.substack.com/ On episode 74 of The Real Eisman Playbook, Steve Eisman sits down with Ryan Tunis, property and casualty insurance analyst at Cantor, for a comprehensive deep dive into personal lines, commercial lines, reinsurance, and insurance brokers. Ryan explains why he's cautious on personal lines as new driver assistance technology drives down accident rates and pricing, why the commercial lines market is entering a soft cycle that favors travelers over Chubb, and why AIG is the most interesting self-help story…
Sign up for The Real Eisman Playbook Premium at https://realeismanplaybook.substack.com/ On this episode of The Weekly Wrap, Steve Eisman breaks down the economy’s growing dependence on AI spending. He explains why OpenAI could be the Achilles’ heel of the AI trade, and what its potential failure could mean for the broader economy. Plus, Steve discusses Meta’s latest settlement, where investors could find safety, and more. 00:00 - Intro 02:53 - War, Oil, & Interest Rate News 03:48 - The Dystopian AI Ending, CapEx, & OpenAI 16:41 - Nvidia 18:33 - OpenAI's ARR 19:38 - Meta 22:22 - Book…
Sign up for The Real Eisman Playbook Premium at https://realeismanplaybook.substack.com/ On episode 73 of The Real Eisman Playbook, Steve Eisman sits down with Jason Trennert & Chris Verrone from Strategas for a wide-ranging mid-year reality check on a tumultuous 2026. They cover the AI capex debate, the war in Iran, private equity's monetization problem, and why the market has proven far more resilient than most expected. 00:00 - Intro 01:37 - The Year So Far 09:06 - The Fed, Leadership, & Private Equity 13:58 - The War in Iran, Oil, & China 16:55 - AI, Software, Meta, Amazon, & Microsoft…
Sign up for The Real Eisman Playbook Premium at https://realeismanplaybook.substack.com On this episode of The Weekly Wrap, Steve Eisman examines the biggest risks facing the AI boom, with a focus on Anthropic and OpenAI and their growing importance to the hyperscalers. He also discusses investing in uncertain markets, the battle between upstarts and established businesses, the future of software, and why he thinks Bitcoin has lost its edge. 00:00 - Intro 03:13 - Iran War Updates 03:57 - Investing Now in Uncertain Times 05:35 - AI Check In 10:25 - Timing is Everything 11:25 - Software Check…
Sign up for The Real Eisman Playbook Premium at https://realeismanplaybook.substack.com/ On episode 72 of The Real Eisman Playbook, Steve Eisman sits down with Glenn Schorr of Evercore and Ken Worthington of JP Morgan for a sweeping deep dive into the ticking time bomb in private credit software loans, agentic AI's impact on retail brokers, crypto use cases and Bitcoin's fading relevance, and a summary of bank earnings. 00:00 - Intro 03:12 - Retail Brokers, Cash, Agentic AI, & Banks 15:00 - Private Equity & Private Credit 28:15 - Crypto 36:06 - Stablecoins 42:21 - The Big Banks Reported…
Sign up for The Real Eisman Playbook Premium at https://realeismanplaybook.substack.com/ On this episode of The Weekly Wrap, Steve Eisman breaks down the week in markets, including SpaceX's highly anticipated earnings, the growing impact of AI spending on free cash flow, and why Meta continues to struggle while Palantir, Microsoft, and Amazon tell a different story. He also examines the collapse of the Situational Awareness hedge fund, private credit, and the biggest earnings reports of the week. Plus, Steve shares his personal TV recommendations. My full list of TV show recommendations:…
Sign up for The Real Eisman Playbook Premium at https://realeismanplaybook.substack.com/ On episode 71 of The Real Eisman Playbook, Steve Eisman sits down with Adrian Wooldridge, journalist and co-author of Capitalism in America with Alan Greenspan, to mark the 250th anniversary of American independence with a sweeping tour of U.S. economic history, from the Hamilton vs. Jefferson debate that shaped the country's trajectory, to the causes of the Great Depression and the Great Financial Crisis. You can purchase "Capitalism in America" here:…
Sign up for The Real Eisman Playbook Premium at https://realeismanplaybook.substack.com/ On this episode of The Weekly Wrap, Steve Eisman covers a massive earnings week headlined by Microsoft posting 30% EPS growth while Meta saw EPS fall 13%. Steve also covers results from Visa, Quanta, Bloom Energy, and Starbucks, a disappointment from Apple, a brutal week for FICO, and much more. He also takes a mailbag question about the history of the K-shaped economy. 00:00 - Intro 01:47 - I'm Selling Charter 03:41 - Iran Update 03:50 - The Fed 04:09 - The AI Debate 10:17 - Earnings: Visa, PayPal,…
Sign up for The Real Eisman Playbook Premium at https://realeismanplaybook.substack.com/ On episode 70 of The Real Eisman Playbook, Steve Eisman sits down with Dan Ives and Gil Luria for a wide-ranging debate on the most important question in markets right now: has the AI trade fundamentally changed, and what does that mean for the stocks that dominate most portfolios? They discuss where we stand with AI compared to where we were a year ago, how specific companies like Google & Oracle have faired, and how the political pressure surrounding data centers has factored in. 00:00 - Intro 02:11 -…
Sign up for The Real Eisman Playbook Premium at https://realeismanplaybook.substack.com/ On this episode of The Weekly Wrap, Steve Eisman covers a pivotal week in markets. Google raised its AI capex to $205 billion, posted negative free cash flow, and saw its stock fall 7%, while Tesla was also down 14.5%. Steve also covers results from GE Vernova, Lockheed Martin, Moody's, Blackstone, and ServiceNow. He closes with two mailbags: One on whether banks belong in a portfolio that's already full of AI exposure, and one explaining the mechanics of the funding short. 00:00 - Intro 02:39 - Iran War…
Sign up for The Real Eisman Playbook Premium at https://realeismanplaybook.substack.com/ On episode 69 of The Real Eisman Playbook, Steve Eisman sits down with Ben Callo, sustainable energy and mobility analyst at Baird, to explore what may be the most important and least understood constraint on the entire AI trade: the U.S. power grid, which needs to add roughly 30 gigawatts of new capacity per year over the next decade. Ben walks through his top picks in the space, including GE Vernova and Tesla, where the autonomous vehicle and energy storage businesses are the real long-term story…
Sign up for The Real Eisman Playbook Premium at https://realeismanplaybook.substack.com/ On this episode of The Weekly Wrap, Steve Eisman breaks down a strong start to the bank earnings season, with JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup all reporting results that were better than feared. Steve also covers IBM's disastrous quarter, PayPal's potential sale, and reports for Netflix, Elevance, UH, and GE Aerospace. He closes with a mailbag regarding his favorite graphic novels. 00:00 - Intro 02:48 - Iran War Updates 03:04 - Circle & Stablecoin 05:55 - PayPal Might…
Sign up for The Real Eisman Playbook Premium at https://realeismanplaybook.substack.com/ On episode 68 of The Real Eisman Playbook, Steve Eisman sits down with Torsten Slok, Chief Economist at Apollo, to break down just how dependent the U.S. economy has become on AI. Torsten walks through the K-shaped economy in detail, explaining why the top third of American consumers are doing fine while the bottom two-thirds are under severe and growing stress. They also discuss the Fed's impossible position, why Jerome Powell is unlikely to cut rates anytime soon, and what a slowdown in AI spending…
On this episode of The Weekly Wrap, Steve Eisman makes the case that diversification in today's market is largely an illusion and that the entire market has effectively become a single bet on AI. Steve also covers the collapse of Circle and Nike's uninspiring quarter. He also closes with two mailbags: one on his personal investment portfolio, and one on book recommendations. Sign up for The Real Eisman Playbook Premium at https://realeismanplaybook.substack.com/ 00:00 - Intro 02:36 - Iran War News 02:54 - Circle & Stablecoins 03:45 - Nike Stock Stays Flat 04:29 - GDP Growth & Dependence on…
On episode 67 of The Real Eisman Playbook, Steve Eisman brings back recurring guest Dan Clifton, political analyst at Strategas, to break down the 2026 midterm landscape. Dan also shares his take on the 2028 presidential race, explains why Kevin Warsh's real agenda is shrinking the Fed's $6 trillion balance sheet rather than cutting rates, and makes the case that tariffs have quietly flipped from a market headwind to a tailwind. 00:00 - Intro 01:40 - The Midterm Elections 12:54 - Where Are We with Tariffs? 15:27 - What's Left with Trump's Agenda? 17:47 - The Fed 23:34 - Bank Regulation 24:59…
On episode 66 of The Real Eisman Playbook, Steve Eisman sits down with Todd Sohn, Chief Chartist at Strategas, for a deep dive into what the charts and ETF flows are revealing about this market. Todd walks through individual stock charts for Nvidia, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, GE Vernova, and more. He explains why Google still looks good while Meta and Microsoft are flashing warning signs. You can view the charts here: https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1G0-aDYImuf8lBqicP12gLKSw3Ishz4JG?usp=drive_link 00:00 - Intro 01:00 - The Philosophy of Charts 01:42 - Semiconductors 04:12 -…
On this episode of The Weekly Wrap, Steve Eisman delivers his second quarter market review, breaking down why semiconductors like Micron and Sandisk surged over 200% while software stocks got crushed, and why the hyperscalers are losing investor confidence. Steve also covers SpaceX's wild volatility after its IPO, Micron's jaw-dropping 1,215% earnings growth, and closes with thoughts on Alan Greenspan and a viewer mailbag question 00:00 - Intro 03:50 - Iran War Updates 04:04 - Accenture's Disastrous Quarter 05:13 - Good News For GEV 05:46 - Volatility in SpaceX Stock 06:39 - Bad News For…
On episode 65 of The Real Eisman Playbook, Steve Eisman sits down with three Evercore consumer analysts (Michael Binetti, David Palmer, and Greg Melich) for a sweeping deep dive into the health of the American consumer across restaurants, retail, food companies, and big box stores. They also dig into why Nike is struggling to turn around, why traditional food companies like Campbell's and Kraft Heinz face structural headwinds from the protein and GLP-1 revolution, and why Ralph Lauren may be the most surprising brand success story in retail today. 0:00:00 - Intro 0:02:08 - The Health of the…
On this episode of The Weekly Wrap, Steve Eisman breaks down the explosive SpaceX IPO, growing concerns around AI economics, and the emerging bull and bear cases for the AI sector. He also examines the Iran situation, private credit stress, and Anthropic's setback with the U.S. government. Plus, Steve answers mailbag questions on inflation, European markets, and the legal debate surrounding addiction-based business models. 00:00 - Intro 01:44 - Iran War Updates 02:29 - Kevin Warsh's First Fed Meeting 02:44 - SpaceX Goes Public 03:18 - Homebuilders 04:02 - Private Credit Updates 04:20 -…
On episode 64 of The Real Eisman Playbook, Steve Eisman brings in Tom Gallagher, life insurance analyst at Evercore, to offer a second opinion on the controversial role private equity is playing in the life insurance sector. Tom walks through the history of private equity's entrance into life insurance, and why companies like Apollo and KKR are taking on more risk. They also dig into the sector's low valuations and why aggressive buybacks are more complicated than it seems. 00:00 - Intro 01:59 - The Role of Private Equity in Life Insurance 05:40 - Does Private Equity Take On More Risk? 10:54…
On this episode of The Weekly Wrap, Steve Eisman breaks down the recent market correction, rising inflation, and why AI may be transforming tech from a capital-light industry into one that requires trillions in ongoing investment. He also examines major developments involving Google, OpenAI, Oracle, SoftBank, Apple, private equity, and private credit, while exploring the growing role of addiction-driven business models across technology and consumer products. 00:00 - Intro 00:58 - Why We Record on Thursdays 02:10 - The Recent Market Correction 03:55 - Google Raising $85 Billion 05:34 -…
On episode 63 of The Real Eisman Playbook, Steve Eisman sits down with Stacy Rasgon, semiconductor analyst at Bernstein, to break down the AI semiconductor boom that has sent the sector up 60% year to date. They explain who is winning, who is playing catch-up, and they close with the most important question in markets right now: what would actually have to happen to derail this boom? 00:00 - Intro 02:17 - What's Happened in the Last 7 Months? 06:02 - Nvidia & GPU vs CPU 19:46 - Michael Burry's Argument 22:29 - AMD 27:50 - Intel 32:38 - Broadcom & Qualcomm 39:06 - ASML, Lam, KLA, & Other…
About The Real Eisman Playbook
The Real Eisman Playbook is your front-row seat to the insights, strategies, and perspectives of legendary investor Steve Eisman. Best known for predicting the 2008 financial crisis, Steve brings his sharp analysis and no-nonsense approach to dissecting the markets, global economy, and investment trends shaping the future. Whether you’re a seasoned investor or just curious about how the financial world really works, The Eisman Playbook delivers the knowledge you need to stay ahead. Tune in for expert commentary, candid conversations, and actionable takeaways from one of Wall Street’s most influential minds.
The Real Eisman Playbook is a English business podcast from Steve Eisman. Melo plays each episode straight from the publisher's own feed — no ads added, no account needed — and remembers where you stopped, in this browser only.
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