Podcast · Business

Top Traders Unplugged

by Niels Kaastrup-Larsen · English · Business

New episodes: Several times a week
Typical length: 1 hr 7 min
Latest: 7 Oct 2026
Language: English

Latest episode

7 Oct 2026 · 1 hr 1 minNew

IL54: Why Smart Investors Keep Making Crazy Decisions ft. Alex Edmans

In today’s episode we talk with London Business School professor Alex Edmans. He has spoken at Davos, testified in the UK House of Commons and reached millions through his TED Talks. He joins the show to discuss his new book, THE MADNESS OF MARKETS, WHY SMART INVESTORS MAKE CRAZY DECISIONS AND HOW TO EXPLOIT THEM. Alex explains why “mood matters” for markets and the surprising relationship of football results and music playlists to market movements. We discuss why individual investors sometimes have an advantage over professionals in taking advantage of psychological biases and go through…

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Earlier episodes 29 most recent

2 Oct 2026 · 1 hr 4 min

SI420: The Market Might Be More Fragile Than It Looks ft. Cem Karsan

Alan Dunne is joined by Cem Karsan to examine the forces pushing bond yields higher and why he believes markets are becoming increasingly fragile. Cem argues that refinancing pressures, persistent inflation, declining foreign demand for Treasuries and the enormous capital requirements of the AI boom are creating an unusually unstable backdrop. They discuss the concentration of equity market growth around AI, the relationship between government policy and financial markets, and Cem’s expectation that a Treasury market shock could eventually trigger a forceful policy response. They also…
30 Sep 2026 · 1 hr 7 min

TTU153: Why Investors Keep Getting Trend Following Wrong ft. Patrick Welton

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Alan Dunne are joined by Welton Investment Corporation founder Patrick Welton to explore what four decades in markets have taught him about trading, risk and managing other people’s money. Pat shares lessons from his encounters with Paul Tudor Jones and John Henry before explaining why taking outside capital fundamentally changes a manager’s responsibility. They discuss the real sources of trend following returns, why managers can damage their edge by listening too closely to clients, and whether replication and multi-strategy funds have changed the landscape. They…
26 Sep 2026 · 1 hr 6 min

SI419: What Happens When AI Starts Building the Portfolio ft. Nick Baltas

Alan Dunne is joined by Nick Baltas to discuss a strong period for trend following and what the latest research says about adapting systematic strategies to changing markets. They examine whether volatility can help determine how quickly trend models should react, and why Nick remains skeptical of relying on regime triggers with limited statistical evidence. The conversation then turns to agentic AI and a new framework for using specialized AI agents in asset allocation. Nick explores how agents could analyze macro regimes, challenge competing portfolio approaches and help investment…
23 Sep 2026 · 1 hr

OI24: Why Power Trading Is 10 Times Crazier Than Crypto ft. Cory Paddock

Moritz Seibert is joined by GBE Energy co-founder Cory Paddock for a look inside the unusual world of proprietary power trading. Cory explains how electricity markets combine weather, physics and economics, and why understanding supply and demand can create opportunities in markets where prices can change dramatically within minutes. They explore the psychology behind taking risk, why a handful of exceptional days can define an entire year, and the lessons Cory learned from his biggest wins and losses. They also discuss GBE’s approach to developing young traders and how AI is accelerating…
19 Sep 2026 · 1 hr 16 min

SI418: Why Markets Are More Alive Than We Think ft. Richard Brennan

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Richard Brennan explore what the science of complex adaptive systems can teach us about markets and trend following. Drawing on research from the Santa Fe Institute, they examine why markets may be better understood as evolving systems shaped by the participants within them rather than machines moving toward equilibrium. They discuss reflexivity, increasing returns and how trends can begin to reinforce themselves, before asking what this means for systematic investors. Along the way, Richard explains why backtests are evidence rather than promises, why taking…
16 Sep 2026 · 1 hr 4 min

IL53: How Bonds Quietly Built the Modern World ft. Robin Wigglesworth

Today we talk with the editor of the Financial Times’ Alphaville blog, Robin Wigglesworth. Robin is the author of A Fabulous Debt - the Epic Story of How Bonds Built the Modern World . He tells the story of the bond market’s beginnings in Venice and how the ability to issue and trade bonds was an essential aspect of its rise to power. Robin explains why historically bond markets and democracy have gone hand-in-hand. Innovations in how bonds are structured and traded also have the ability alter market fundamentals and he explains how this happened with the US junk bond market pioneered by…
12 Sep 2026 · 1 hr 9 min

SI417: What Happens When AI Starts Trading the Markets ft. Rob Carver

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Rob Carver discuss a market that feels unusually calm despite growing pressure beneath the surface. They look at rising concerns around government debt and bond yields, recent changes to a major managed futures ETF, and why style drift matters for systematic investors. Rob explains why simplicity and robustness remain essential when building trading systems, and where discretion can and cannot fit into a systematic process. They also explore the risks of using AI in quantitative investing, whether AI-driven traders could change market behavior, and why adapting…
9 Sep 2026 · 1 hr 2 min

GM107: What If AI Actually Pushes Interest Rates Higher? ft. Matt Klein

Alan Dunne is joined by Matt Klein to discuss whether the excitement around AI is getting ahead of the economic reality. Matt explains why the parallels with the 1990s productivity boom may be misleading and why stronger productivity could actually push interest rates higher rather than lower. They explore the surge in AI investment, what rising bond yields really tell us about the economy, and whether US debt levels are as worrying as they appear. The conversation also turns to China’s enormous trade surplus, growing global imbalances, the prospect of European tariffs, currency intervention…
5 Sep 2026 · 1 hr 14 min

SI416: 137 Years of Trend: What the Evidence Really Shows ft. Yoav Git

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Yoav Git examine why trend following continues to endure despite decades of changing markets and persistent skepticism. They revisit AQR’s 137-year study of trend following, exploring diversification, volatility scaling and the behavioral and economic forces behind persistent trends. The conversation also turns to the mechanics of commodity markets, using the 2020 oil collapse to show how inventories, storage capacity and forced futures rolls can produce extreme price moves. Along the way, they discuss investor trust, systematic risk intervention, CTA implementation…
2 Sep 2026 · 1 hr 24 min

GM106: What Happens When the Debt Finally Matters ft. Marvin Barth

Marvin Barth joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Cem Karsan for a wide-ranging debate about the Fed, inflation and the growing pressures on the US economy. Barth argues that central bankers have become too confident in models that cannot fully capture reality, while the conversation quickly turns to Kevin Warsh, Scott Bessent and the power of signaling in financial markets. From there, Cem and Marvin "clash" over austerity, debt monetization, populism and inequality before examining why inflation expectations may matter more than individual shocks. We round this super energetic conversation by…
29 Aug 2026 · 1 hr 7 min

SI415: Maybe This Is Just What Normal Markets Look Like ft. Alan Dunne

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Alan Dunne examine how a changing macro regime is reshaping markets and the role of trend following. They discuss unusual U.S. intervention in the yen, mounting sensitivity around Treasury yields, and questions surrounding Kevin Warsh’s communication and the Fed’s credibility. Alan identifies three fractures defining the new regime: persistent inflation, growing debt sustainability concerns, and the erosion of institutional norms. They also explore why trend following has performed differently this decade, particularly during periods of bond market stress, before…
26 Aug 2026 · 47 min

IL52: Why Staying Calm Is the Ultimate Investing Edge ft. David Booth

In today’s episode we talk with a pioneer of modern asset management, Dimensional Fund Advisors founder David Booth. David founded Dimensional in 1981 and it has since grown to over $1 trillion in assets, making it one of the most successful quantitative investment firms in history. We talk with him about his new book, Stay Calm: Learn to Embrace Uncertainty in Investing and Life. We discuss his early career working on both the world’s first index fund and the first active quant strategy developed by finance legends Fischer Black and Myron Scholes. David explains why successful investing…
22 Aug 2026 · 1 hr 14 min

SI414: The Hidden Risks Beneath the Treasury Market ft. Mark Rzepczynski

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Mark Rzepczynski examine the warning signs emerging beneath seemingly calm markets, from extreme single-stock moves and commodity shortages to growing strains in the U.S. Treasury market. They explore how leveraged hedge funds and basis trades have become increasingly important to Treasury liquidity, and why market plumbing can matter as much as price signals. The conversation then turns to the evolution of trend following, comparing different approaches to signals and position sizing, the benefits of combining methodologies, and why short-term trend strategies face…
19 Aug 2026 · 1 hr 4 min

ALO38: Why the Old Rules of Diversification Are Changing ft. Mike Pyle

Alan Dunne is joined by Mike Pyle, Deputy Head of BlackRock’s Portfolio Management Group, to explore how a supply-driven world is reshaping markets and portfolio construction. They discuss the transition from the demand-constrained 2010s to an era defined by scarcity, fiscal activism, geopolitical shocks and the immense capital demands of AI. Pyle explains why bonds may no longer provide the diversification they once did, why hedge funds and market-neutral strategies are becoming increasingly important, and how portable alpha can separate beta from return generation. They also examine AI…
15 Aug 2026 · 1 hr 22 min

SI413: Why Trend Following Is More Than Crisis Alpha ft. Andrew Beer & Tom Wrobel

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen is joined by Andrew Beer and Tom Wrobel to examine a remarkable period for systematic investing. They discuss how CTAs have navigated volatile moves across equities, commodities, currencies and rates while preserving strong gains, and why diversification has been central to that resilience. The conversation explores leverage, the renewed interest in managed accounts and portable alpha, alongside the growing distinction between trend and non-trend strategies. They also challenge the traditional framing of CTAs as crisis alpha, debate whether greater complexity actually…
12 Aug 2026 · 1 hr 2 min

ALO37: Investing in the New World Order ft. Charles-Henry Monchau

Charles-Henry Monchau joins Alan Dunne to discuss how geopolitics, artificial intelligence and structural economic shifts are reshaping global investing. They explore the AI supercycle, the changing balance between the US, China and Europe, sovereign debt, inflation, commodities and the future of asset allocation. Charles explains why investors should focus on long-term structural themes rather than short-term market noise and why the biggest opportunities may lie beyond the current AI infrastructure boom. The conversation also examines Europe’s competitiveness, China’s innovation strategy…
8 Aug 2026 · 1 hr 20 min

SI412: Portable Alpha: Asking the Questions That Matter ft. Harry Moore

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Harry Moore explore the latest developments in trend following, the AI investment boom and why diversification matters most when markets come under pressure. They discuss CTA performance, market dispersion, portable alpha, cash efficient portfolio construction and the role of trend following during major market drawdowns. The conversation also examines how artificial intelligence is transforming quantitative research, the practical challenges of portfolio implementation and new research linking classic Turtle Trading principles to modern portfolio theory. ----- 50…
5 Aug 2026 · 1 hr 1 min

ALO36: The Endowment Playbook for Long-Term Investing ft. Paul Chai

Paul Chai joins Alan Dunne to discuss what it takes to manage a perpetual investment portfolio designed to support future generations. As CIO of the Kansas State University Foundation, Paul explains how disciplined asset allocation, thoughtful manager selection and strong governance create resilient long-term results. The conversation explores endowment investing, private markets, hedge funds, portfolio construction and the importance of building a decision-making culture where diverse perspectives are encouraged. It is a wide-ranging discussion about investing with humility, managing…
1 Aug 2026 · 2 hr

SI411: Why the Best Portfolios Are Built to Be Wrong ft. David Dredge & Richard Brennan

The future isn’t hidden. It hasn’t been written yet. That idea anchors this foundational conversation between Dave Dredge, Richard Brennan and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen, on what risk really means in markets. They challenge the mathematics behind modern portfolio construction, exposing how calm conditions can conceal leverage, how diversification can fail when it matters most, and why familiar measures such as volatility and Sharpe ratios often miss the forces that lead to permanent loss. From path dependency and complex adaptive systems to trend following, convexity and the geometry of wealth,…
29 Jul 2026 · 1 hr 2 min

IL51: Why Most Recessions Are Completely Misunderstood ft. Tyler Goodspeed

Why do recessions happen? Tyler Goodspeed joins Kevin Coldiron to challenge some of the most deeply held beliefs in economics. Drawing on more than three centuries of data from the United States and the United Kingdom, he argues that recessions are rarely the inevitable consequence of excess or financial imbalances. Instead, they are often triggered by unexpected external shocks that are difficult to predict. The conversation explores why expansions do not simply die of old age, why recessions fail to cleanse the economy, and what policymakers and investors should focus on instead when…
25 Jul 2026 · 1 hr 11 min

SI410: The Next Evolution of Trend Following ft. Nick Baltas

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Nick Baltas explore how artificial intelligence, thematic investing and narrative momentum are beginning to reshape systematic investing. Alongside a review of recent CTA performance, they discuss new research on expanding trend following universes, defensive portfolio construction and portable alpha before taking a deep dive into the growing role of AI and thematic risk models. The conversation examines whether future investment signals may come from more than price alone and how systematic investors can combine traditional trend following with new sources of…
22 Jul 2026 · 47 min

OI23: Why Capital Efficiency Is the Next Edge in Investing ft. Charlie McGarraugh

Charlie McGarraugh joins Moritz Seibert to discuss how systematic investing is evolving beyond traditional trend following. Drawing on experience from Goldman Sachs, crypto and machine learning, Charlie explains why adaptive portfolios, capital efficiency and smarter position sizing may become the defining advantages for the next generation of macro investors. They explore the rise of managed futures ETFs, China's growing futures markets, the trade off between diversification and simplicity, and why portfolio construction often matters more than finding the next predictive signal. It is a…
18 Jul 2026 · 1 hr 9 min

SI409: Why Trend Following Is Changing Faster Than Ever ft. Yoav Git

Markets are evolving in ways that few investors fully appreciate. Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Yoav Git explore how changing market structure, the rise of retail options trading and new financial products are reshaping trend following. They discuss why short term strategies have become more challenging, whether single stock futures could open new opportunities, and what recent research reveals about narratives, thematic investing and diversification. Along the way they examine commodities, equity markets and the practical realities of systematic investing, offering a thoughtful perspective on…
15 Jul 2026 · 1 hr 16 min

GM105: The Billion-Barrel Shock Has Not Arrived Yet ft. Adam Rozencwajg

More than a billion barrels of expected oil supply have been removed from the market. Yet prices suggest the danger has passed. Adam Rozencwajg joins Cem Karsan and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to explain why that conclusion may be dangerously premature. The missing barrels have not disappeared from the equation. Their impact is still moving through tankers, refineries and inventories, hidden by reporting delays and China’s strategic response. From the limits of petroleum reserves to falling stockpiles, gold’s correction and the energy required to power AI, this episode examines a market caught…
11 Jul 2026 · 1 hr 4 min

SI408: Has Trend Following Changed Forever? ft. Alan Dunne

Markets continue to evolve, and so do the strategies designed to navigate them. Alan Dunne joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to explore why changes in market structure may have permanently altered short term trend following, and what that means for systematic investors. They discuss a fascinating new research paper on market microstructure, the changing role of liquidity, the rise of high frequency trading and why faster no longer necessarily means better. Along the way they examine the Federal Reserve's evolving communication strategy, the outlook for commodities, and why regime change continues…
8 Jul 2026 · 56 min

GM104: How the Dollar Quietly Took Over the World ft. Brendan Greeley

The US dollar has become so familiar that most investors rarely stop to ask how it became the world's dominant currency or why that dominance has endured. Brendan Greeley joins Alan Dunne to trace the dollar's remarkable journey from a silver coin in sixteenth century Europe to the foundation of modern global finance. Along the way they explore the hidden mechanics of money creation, the evolution of offshore dollars, the Federal Reserve's expanding role, and why the institutions supporting the dollar may matter far more than politics. It is a conversation that challenges many of the…
4 Jul 2026 · 1 hr 2 min

SI407: Why America Is Rewriting the Rules of Capitalism ft. Cem Karsan

Markets may be entering one of the most important regime shifts in decades. Cem Karsan joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to argue that the United States is moving away from traditional free market capitalism towards a far more strategic model where government, markets and technology become increasingly intertwined. They discuss why positioning continues to dominate market behaviour, the growing role of sovereign investment, the future of AI driven capital spending, and why the next major turning point may arrive after the US midterm elections. It is a conversation that challenges conventional…
1 Jul 2026 · 1 hr 20 min

GM103: Why Optimism Could Be the Most Contrarian Trade ft. Pippa Malmgren

While much of the world is focused on geopolitical conflict, inflation and rising global tensions, Pippa Malmgren argues that a very different future may already be taking shape. Joining Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Cem Karsan, she explores how artificial intelligence, advanced energy, shifting diplomacy and technological innovation could reshape the global economy and even reduce the risk of war. From the future of the US dollar and China to nuclear energy, robotics and non human intelligence, this conversation challenges conventional thinking and offers an unusually optimistic perspective on…
27 Jun 2026 · 1 hr 8 min

SI406: Why Uncertainty Is a Trend Follower’s Best Friend ft. Mark Rzepczynski

Markets rarely move in straight lines, but periods of uncertainty often create the biggest opportunities for systematic investors. Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Mark Rzepczynski examine why geopolitical shocks, changing Federal Reserve leadership and shifting market regimes continue to shape trend following performance. They explore why only a handful of markets often drive returns, how diversification really works when correlations suddenly rise, and why managed futures have historically stood apart during periods of elevated volatility. Along the way, they discuss the future of monetary…

About Top Traders Unplugged

Top Traders Unplugged is where the world’s best investors come to share how they think - not just what they trade. Hosted by Niels Kaastrup-Larsen, the show goes deep into systematic trend following, global macro, and the principles that drive long-term success. No forecasts. No fads. Just real conversations with hedge fund managers, economists, authors, and allocators - revealing the timeless ideas, mental models, and risk frameworks behind robust performance. If you're building resilient portfolios, allocating capital, or simply looking to cut through the noise - this is your edge. Clear thinking. Deep insights. Real experience. 🎧 New episodes weekly. Explore all episodes at toptradersunplugged.com https://toptradersunplugged.com

Top Traders Unplugged is a English business podcast from Niels Kaastrup-Larsen. Melo plays each episode straight from the publisher's own feed — no ads added, no account needed — and remembers where you stopped, in this browser only.

Publisher: Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
Language: English
Category: Business
New episodes: Several times a week
Typical length: 1 hr 7 min
Latest episode: 7 Oct 2026
Feed: RSS — paste into any podcast app
Apple Podcasts: podcasts.apple.com/podcast/id888420325
Website: toptradersunplugged.com

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