Episode · Forward Guidance
The AI Unwind And Warsh's Long-End Gamble | Weekly Roundup
3 Aug 2026 · 49 min
Episode · Forward Guidance
3 Aug 2026 · 49 min
AI’s leverage-fueled boom is colliding with a Fed determined to tighten conditions without touching short-term rates. This week, we dig into the Situational Awareness liquidation, the Fed meeting, and whether markets have reached a genuine growth inflection. We unpack the ongoing AI unwind, Warsh’s long-end strategy, the Fed's credibility shock, and the administration’s market choreography. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 01:45 Situational Awareness Liquidation 04:49 Why Leverage Fueled The Boom 07:51 Price Drives The Narrative 12:42 Did Markets Misread Warsh? 21:08 Why The Long End Matters…
by Blockworks · English · Business
The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Felix Jauvin interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they en
12 Aug 2026 · 46 min
Running the economy hot may keep growth alive, but it creates a dangerous balancing act for markets. Darius Dale, founder of 42 Macro, joins us to explain why today’s reflationary regime demands a different investing playbook. We also discuss rising neutral rates, bond-market pressure, Fed credibility, capital scarcity, and systematic portfolio risk management. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 01:00 The Risk-On Reflation Regime 06:29 Why This Bull Market Feels Harder 14:54 The Fed Risks The Bond Market 20:57 Inside The Fed’s Policy Tightrope 29:49 Can Policymakers Stick The Landing? 37:10 Why…
7 Aug 2026 · 1 hr
Washington is shifting from monetary management toward state-directed capitalism and the consequences could reshape where capital flows next. This week, Tyler joins us for his final roundup before heading to Shoten Capital, unpacking the shift toward state-directed growth and volatility suppression. We explore Fed-Treasury coordination, the AI capex boom, energy abundance, and whether Bitcoin is approaching a turning point. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 00:58 Tyler's Farewell 04:34 Markets Enter A New Regime 06:22 Treasury Takes Control Of Volatility 15:11 Nuclear Power Supercycle? 20:18…
5 Aug 2026 · 32 min
Markets are relearning that durable wealth comes from disciplined risk management, not chasing momentum or relying on central bank intervention. This week, we're joined by Jared Dillian, editor of The Daily Dirtnap and author of The Awesome Portfolio, to discuss why markets may be entering a new regime where risk management matters more than maximizing returns. We explore Warsh's Fed strategy, the case for a steeper yield curve, why the AI trade may be masking economic weakness, how sentiment shifts after crowded trades unwind, and why gold and diversified portfolios could be poised for a…
22 Jul 2026 · 44 min
AI’s next phase hinges on a paradox: falling costs could threaten today’s winners while unlocking far greater demand. Steve Hou, head of research at Silicon Data and former Bloomberg strategist, joins us to examine the changing economics of AI compute. We discuss token efficiency, model routing, GPU pricing, memory bottlenecks, and when enterprise adoption may finally deliver measurable returns. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 01:01 Why AI Compute Needs Hedging 06:55 What The Token Index Really Shows 14:04 Token Maxing Meets Efficiency 18:35 Who Captures AI’s Value? 22:12 Old GPUs Reveal…
17 Jul 2026 · 54 min
The market’s most crowded trade is beginning to crack, but where the fallout spreads next remains unclear. This week, we dig into the violent momentum unwind and mounting pressure across the AI trade. We explore the damage of leveraged ETFs, Korea’s retail reckoning, a potential value revival, renewed Iran oil risks, and why Quinn is bullish real estate in the right places. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:01 The Momentum Trade Unravels 06:22 Leveraged ETFs Are Breaking Markets 12:07 Has The AI Boom Hit Its Limits? 16:05 Cheap Models Threatening The AI Trade 19:52 Hyperscalers Facing A…
8 Jul 2026 · 46 min
Markets reward independent thinking, but only if you can avoid the traps that come with it. This week, Brent Donnelly, President of Spectra Markets and author of Trade Outside the Box, joins us to discuss how psychology, risk management, and market narratives shape successful trading. We explore poker's lessons for traders, AI's role in markets, Kevin Warsh's Fed, the dollar and yen, and why predicting people may matter more than predicting macro. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:00 Trading Outside The Box 06:38 Trading Psychology And Risk 12:46 AI As A Trading Tool 19:33 How LLMs Shape…
4 Oct 2026 · 54 min
Can policymakers keep the AI boom alive without squeezing the rest of the economy? This week, Aidan Garrib, PGM Global’s head of global macro strategy and research, joins us to explore the widening divide between Wall Street and Main Street. We discuss what’s driving bond yields, housing’s squeeze, the debasement trade, and Europe’s policy trap. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:38 What’s Really Driving Bond Yields? 08:31 AI Booms While Housing Breaks 14:40 Can The Fed Get Yields Down? 19:23 The Fed’s Inflation Balancing Act 22:42 Can Main Street Survive AI’s Boom? 29:04 Why Policymakers…
25 Sep 2026 · 1 hr 2 min
The 10-year just closed at 5.22%, but the pain trade may be even higher. This week, 40-year rates trading veteran DCP joins us as we examine the bond selloff and what it would take to actually break something and flip the pain trade in bonds. We explore SOFR hike pricing, AI capex and private credit, diesel's hit to Main Street, market concentration, the quiet consumer stock bear market, and where DCP would finally get long. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:21 Why Bond Yields Keep Rising 07:30 Can Main Street Survive Higher Rates? 11:15 Can Treasury Stop The Selloff? 16:22 What Can’t The…
18 Sep 2026 · 1 hr 13 min
What happens when the Fed hikes into fading stimulus, slowing growth, and persistent inflation? This week, we're joined by Vincent Deluard of StoneX Group to explore America’s emerging stagflation trap, AI’s economic support, and Europe’s potential Japan-style currency reset. We also discuss the contrarian case for UK equities and Canada’s investment revival. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 01:34 Did The Fed Turn Too Hawkish? 08:10 The Stimulus Boom Is Fading 13:11 The Return Of Stagflation 21:06 Is The Fed Making A Mistake? 25:45 Can Trump Salvage Midterms? 32:35 Why AI Leaders Want…
16 Sep 2026 · 54 min
Historically low volatility may be masking a meaningful shift in market risk and the AI trade. This week, Macro Risk Advisors CEO and Alpha Exchange Host Dean Curnutt explains why unusually low stock correlations make tail hedging increasingly compelling. We explore volatility pricing, crowded correlation trades, the Treasury market stress, why AI stocks could suddenly move together, and whether the Fed can calm markets. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 05:08 Why Stock Correlation Collapsed 10:49 What’s Driving The Dispersion Trade? 18:45 Ads (Token 2049, Avalanche Summit) 20:21 Could…