Episode · Forward Guidance
Think Like Everyone Else, Lose Like Everyone Else | Brent Donnelly
8 Jul 2026 · 46 min
Episode · Forward Guidance
8 Jul 2026 · 46 min
Markets reward independent thinking, but only if you can avoid the traps that come with it. This week, Brent Donnelly, President of Spectra Markets and author of Trade Outside the Box, joins us to discuss how psychology, risk management, and market narratives shape successful trading. We explore poker's lessons for traders, AI's role in markets, Kevin Warsh's Fed, the dollar and yen, and why predicting people may matter more than predicting macro. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:00 Trading Outside The Box 06:38 Trading Psychology And Risk 12:46 AI As A Trading Tool 19:33 How LLMs Shape…
by Blockworks · English · Business
The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Felix Jauvin interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they en
3 Aug 2026 · 49 min
AI’s leverage-fueled boom is colliding with a Fed determined to tighten conditions without touching short-term rates. This week, we dig into the Situational Awareness liquidation, the Fed meeting, and whether markets have reached a genuine growth inflection. We unpack the ongoing AI unwind, Warsh’s long-end strategy, the Fed's credibility shock, and the administration’s market choreography. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 01:45 Situational Awareness Liquidation 04:49 Why Leverage Fueled The Boom 07:51 Price Drives The Narrative 12:42 Did Markets Misread Warsh? 21:08 Why The Long End Matters…
22 Jul 2026 · 44 min
AI’s next phase hinges on a paradox: falling costs could threaten today’s winners while unlocking far greater demand. Steve Hou, head of research at Silicon Data and former Bloomberg strategist, joins us to examine the changing economics of AI compute. We discuss token efficiency, model routing, GPU pricing, memory bottlenecks, and when enterprise adoption may finally deliver measurable returns. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 01:01 Why AI Compute Needs Hedging 06:55 What The Token Index Really Shows 14:04 Token Maxing Meets Efficiency 18:35 Who Captures AI’s Value? 22:12 Old GPUs Reveal…
17 Jul 2026 · 54 min
The market’s most crowded trade is beginning to crack, but where the fallout spreads next remains unclear. This week, we dig into the violent momentum unwind and mounting pressure across the AI trade. We explore the damage of leveraged ETFs, Korea’s retail reckoning, a potential value revival, renewed Iran oil risks, and why Quinn is bullish real estate in the right places. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:01 The Momentum Trade Unravels 06:22 Leveraged ETFs Are Breaking Markets 12:07 Has The AI Boom Hit Its Limits? 16:05 Cheap Models Threatening The AI Trade 19:52 Hyperscalers Facing A…
3 Jul 2026 · 47 min
Markets can look strongest just before their underlying assumptions begin to crack. This week, we examine whether the AI-led growth narrative is beginning to unravel as positioning, macro data, and market structure all shift at once. We discuss the AI momentum unwind, yen intervention, NFP & labor market weakness, Fed policy, gold, Bitcoin, and what we think is the next major trade. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 01:40 AI Momentum Starts To Crack 07:14 What Triggered The Selloff? 10:21 Is The AI Boom Peaking? 12:24 Why Gold Still Looks Attractive 14:19 Breaking Down The Jobs Report 18:06…
29 Jun 2026 · 45 min
Markets may be entering a fundamentally different monetary regime under Kevin Warsh. This week, Bob Sheehan of Lighthouse Macro joins to explain why the Fed's evolving framework could reshape how investors interpret policy, economic data, and market pricing. We discuss the end of the Fed put, rising rate volatility, Treasury curve dynamics, fiscal pressures, and why data-driven macro matters more than ever. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:04 Bob's Macro Background 09:21 Data-Driven Macro 13:13 The Fed Put Is Dead 16:46 Less Guidance, More Volatility 21:13 Why Data Matters Even More 25:35…
26 Jun 2026 · 1 hr
The Fed scare that dominated markets may already be losing momentum. Now investors are asking what comes next as the AI trade, inflation picture, and market leadership evolve. This week, we break down why the Fed may be nearing the end of its hiking cycle, how AI investment is reshaping markets, and where capital is rotating next. We also discuss peak inflation, hyperscaler capex, market dispersion, active management, and why new leaders could replace the old winners. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 01:16 FIFA World Cup 04:24 Peak Hawkishness Fading 09:53 Oil, Gasoline, And Disinflation 12:28…
4 Oct 2026 · 54 min
Can policymakers keep the AI boom alive without squeezing the rest of the economy? This week, Aidan Garrib, PGM Global’s head of global macro strategy and research, joins us to explore the widening divide between Wall Street and Main Street. We discuss what’s driving bond yields, housing’s squeeze, the debasement trade, and Europe’s policy trap. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:38 What’s Really Driving Bond Yields? 08:31 AI Booms While Housing Breaks 14:40 Can The Fed Get Yields Down? 19:23 The Fed’s Inflation Balancing Act 22:42 Can Main Street Survive AI’s Boom? 29:04 Why Policymakers…
25 Sep 2026 · 1 hr 2 min
The 10-year just closed at 5.22%, but the pain trade may be even higher. This week, 40-year rates trading veteran DCP joins us as we examine the bond selloff and what it would take to actually break something and flip the pain trade in bonds. We explore SOFR hike pricing, AI capex and private credit, diesel's hit to Main Street, market concentration, the quiet consumer stock bear market, and where DCP would finally get long. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:21 Why Bond Yields Keep Rising 07:30 Can Main Street Survive Higher Rates? 11:15 Can Treasury Stop The Selloff? 16:22 What Can’t The…
18 Sep 2026 · 1 hr 13 min
What happens when the Fed hikes into fading stimulus, slowing growth, and persistent inflation? This week, we're joined by Vincent Deluard of StoneX Group to explore America’s emerging stagflation trap, AI’s economic support, and Europe’s potential Japan-style currency reset. We also discuss the contrarian case for UK equities and Canada’s investment revival. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 01:34 Did The Fed Turn Too Hawkish? 08:10 The Stimulus Boom Is Fading 13:11 The Return Of Stagflation 21:06 Is The Fed Making A Mistake? 25:45 Can Trump Salvage Midterms? 32:35 Why AI Leaders Want…
16 Sep 2026 · 54 min
Historically low volatility may be masking a meaningful shift in market risk and the AI trade. This week, Macro Risk Advisors CEO and Alpha Exchange Host Dean Curnutt explains why unusually low stock correlations make tail hedging increasingly compelling. We explore volatility pricing, crowded correlation trades, the Treasury market stress, why AI stocks could suddenly move together, and whether the Fed can calm markets. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 05:08 Why Stock Correlation Collapsed 10:49 What’s Driving The Dispersion Trade? 18:45 Ads (Token 2049, Avalanche Summit) 20:21 Could…