Episode notes
With the ECB keeping rates on hold, and the BOE and Fed expected to do the same, Blake and George explore what's really driving central bank decisions. From energy market pressures in Europe to an unexpectedly hawkish Fed backdrop, discover why holding steady is anything but straightforward in this week's policy meetings. Participants: Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy George Moran (Desk Strategy), European Macro Strategist * Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts
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Macro Minutes
RBC Capital Markets · Business · English
Macro Minutes - RBC Capital Markets macro and market strategy series – explores the latest financial market and economic developments. Listen today to hear high conviction insights from RBC’s desk strategists and research analysts.
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S1 · E118 · 17 Sep 2026 · 14 min
Time is ticking!
The ECB hiked rates a second time in this cycle last week and did not suggest that the 2.50% they previously flagged as top end of neutral will be a key line in the sand. In contrast, the BoE did not hike this week, but left the door wide open to do so – maybe even before the end of 2026. Listen to Peter and Cathal as they dissect both recent meetings and provide an outlook for the rates paths going forward against a difficult energy price outlook. Participants: Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics Cathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK Economist *…
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S1 · E116 · 11 Sep 2026 · 20 min
What comes next for European markets?
In this Partner of Choice special episode, we look at how change across European markets is creating new opportunities for resilient growth and how RBC is strengthening its capabilities in response, across our people, products, and technology, to help clients to capture these opportunities. Speakers: Sian Hurrell, Co-CEO, RBC Europe & Europe Head, Capital Markets Mark Tinworth, Head of Global Markets Sales, Europe Learn how we combine depth of insight and executional excellence, to deliver leading solutions for our clients as their partner of choice: Partner of Choice | RBC Capital Markets…
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S1 · E117 · 9 Sep 2026 · 11 min
Guarded exuberance in EM FX
EM FX has enjoyed a lift from a constructive macro backdrop, with growth resilient and inflation generally under control. We retain a bullish bias (long KRW, MYR, BRL) but caution against being exposed to higher energy prices. We also maintain some hedge trades in our portfolio. Participants: Abbas Keshvani (Desk Strategy), Asia Macro Strategist Daria Parkhomenko (Desk Strategy), FX Strategist Luis Estrada (Desk Strategy), LATAM FX Strategist * Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts
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S1 · E115 · 1 Sep 2026 · 26 min
Back to school
As summer ends, financial markets face a crucial semester ahead. The next Fed meeting looms large and the path to hikes runs squarely through inflation, with or without, Warsh’s blessing. Until there is sustained progress on price pressures, market expectations will be sticky for pricing hikes. US-Canada trade tensions have escalated but the Canadian economy has managed past tariffs well and has fiscal space and flexibility to ride it out. Sustained above trend growth is required for the BoC to hike. The ECB will surely hike in September, but will they do more after that? The UK budget…
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S1 · E114 · 29 Jul 2026 · 14 min
Yellow Card for Carry
The summer of soccer is over—and geopolitics and the Fed just took the pitch. Our EM strategists break down why they have locked in gains, where the Brazilian real goes from here, the South African rand's new vulnerability, and why the Korean won is the MVP of July. Abbas Keshvani (Desk Strategy) , Asia Macro Strategist Daria Parkhomenko (Desk Strategy) , FX Strategist Luis Estrada (Desk Strategy) , LATAM FX Strategist * Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts
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S1 · E112 · 16 Jul 2026 · 15 min
Rate hike fever crosses the Tasman Sea
In this all-Antipodean edition of Macro Minutes, Robert Thompson and Mary Jo Vergara discuss the RBNZ hiking the OCR rates for the first time in three years with more to come, in contrast to the RBA, which is stepping back into the shadows after three quick-fire hikes in February, March, and May. Participants: Robert Thompson (Desk Strategy), Head of Australian Economics & Rates Strategy Mary Jo Vergara (Desk Strategy), Senior Economist * Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts
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S1 · E111 · 9 Jul 2026 · 18 min
Stall speed, holding pattern
The Canadian economy is at stall speed and the BoC is in a holding pattern. There has been no GDP growth and anemic employment gains over the last year – amid the dual forces of a population and trade shock. The consumer has actually been quite resilient in the face of these shocks. While the starting point should keep the BoC on hold for the rest of the year, better prospects for growth are ahead and this should see the BoC delivering hikes in 2027. Listen for more detailed views on the Canadian economy and fixed income markets in the coming quarters. Participants: Jason Daw (Desk…
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S1 · E110 · 26 Jun 2026 · 16 min
The summer of soccer
In this month's Emerging Markets edition, Luis Estrada is joined by Abbas Keshvani and Dasha Parkhomenko to analyze recent developments across emerging markets. The discussion covers the changing direction of the US dollar, preferred trades for the current environment, and key risks to their outlook. Participants: Abbas Keshvani (Desk Strategy), Asia Macro Strategist Daria Parkhomenko (Desk Strategy), FX Strategist Luis Estrada (Desk Strategy), LATAM FX Strategist * Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts
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S1 · E109 · 18 Jun 2026 · 21 min
We need to talk about Kevin!
In this special edition of Macro Minutes, Peter Schaffrik is joined by Blake Gwinn to dissect the first FOMC meeting under the new chairman Warsh. Blake shares his views on the task forces set up, the market reaction to the change in the SEP projections and explains why he still does not expect rate hikes this year. Participants: Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy * Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts
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S1 · E108 · 12 Jun 2026 · 13 min
Going for a hike!
Straight after the ECB’s first rate increase in quite a few years, Cathal Kennedy and Peter Schaffrik discuss the ECB’s rate hike, the set of new forecast and the likely path going forward. Peter and Cathal also discuss next week’s BoE meeting and compare and contrast the two central banks’ approach to monetary policy at present. Participants: Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics Cathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK Economist * Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts
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