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Macro Minutes

by RBC Capital Markets · English · Business

Macro Minutes - RBC Capital Markets macro and market strategy series – explores the latest financial market and economic developments. Listen today to hear high conviction insights from RBC’s desk strategists and research analysts.

New episodes: Weekly
Typical length: 17 min
Latest: 14 Oct 2026
Language: English

Latest episode

14 Oct 2026 · 16 minNew

Around the world in 15 minutes

A broad tour of global FX markets spanning Asia, G10, and LatAm, covering key currency trades, positioning, and central bank divergence. The discussion highlights major risks into year-end, including an AI-trade pullback, China trade tensions, US Treasury moves, and political uncertainty in Brazil. Participants: Elsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Global Head of FX Strategy & Head of EMEA Institutional FX Sales Abbas Keshvani (Desk Strategy), Asia Macro Strategist Luis Estrada (Desk Strategy), LATAM FX Strategist * Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed…

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Earlier episodes 29 most recent

S1 · E121 · 7 Oct 2026 · 27 min
Wake up call
There has been a substantial widening of spreads in the European bond markets. While the epicentre is in the French bond market, it seems to have morphed from a French idiosyncratic problem to a broader one, a problem that comes on top of a whole list of issues and specifically on top of the energy crisis that is still unresolved. Participants: Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics George Moran (Desk Strategy), European Economist Megum Muhic (Desk Strategy), UK Rates Strategist * Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those…
S1 · E120 · 1 Oct 2026 · 28 min
Dumpster fire
Bond yields have spiked globally led by an inter-related combination of oil prices and re-pricing of central bank terminal rates. Momentum and investors exiting long exposure has added fuel to the fire. To put it in context, the one-month increase in US 2y yields is one of the largest over the past 25 years. This has pushed up long term rates and flattened the curve. These dynamics haven’t been isolated to the US market; it is a global phenomenon. For now, risk asset such as equities and credit has been well behaved, but history shows when rates rise sharply and there is an accompanying…
S1 · E119 · 29 Sep 2026 · 12 min
EM under pressure: when resilience runs out
For most of 2026, Emerging Market assets held their ground against a wall of external headwinds — but September may mark the moment that resilience finally cracks. A surprise Fed hike, relentless UST repricing, and a USD trading near multi-year highs are draining the confidence that underpinned EM idiosyncratic trades across every region. In this episode, Luis Estrada, Dasha Parkhomenko, and Abbas Keshvani take stock of what is breaking down, what is holding, and how G10 developments are eroding EM resilience. Participants: Abbas Keshvani (Desk Strategy), Asia Macro Strategist Daria…
S1 · E118 · 17 Sep 2026 · 14 min
Time is ticking!
The ECB hiked rates a second time in this cycle last week and did not suggest that the 2.50% they previously flagged as top end of neutral will be a key line in the sand. In contrast, the BoE did not hike this week, but left the door wide open to do so – maybe even before the end of 2026. Listen to Peter and Cathal as they dissect both recent meetings and provide an outlook for the rates paths going forward against a difficult energy price outlook. Participants: Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics Cathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK Economist *…
S1 · E116 · 11 Sep 2026 · 20 min
What comes next for European markets?
In this Partner of Choice special episode, we look at how change across European markets is creating new opportunities for resilient growth and how RBC is strengthening its capabilities in response, across our people, products, and technology, to help clients to capture these opportunities. Speakers: Sian Hurrell, Co-CEO, RBC Europe & Europe Head, Capital Markets Mark Tinworth, Head of Global Markets Sales, Europe Learn how we combine depth of insight and executional excellence, to deliver leading solutions for our clients as their partner of choice: Partner of Choice | RBC Capital Markets…
S1 · E117 · 9 Sep 2026 · 11 min
Guarded exuberance in EM FX
EM FX has enjoyed a lift from a constructive macro backdrop, with growth resilient and inflation generally under control. We retain a bullish bias (long KRW, MYR, BRL) but caution against being exposed to higher energy prices. We also maintain some hedge trades in our portfolio. Participants: Abbas Keshvani (Desk Strategy), Asia Macro Strategist Daria Parkhomenko (Desk Strategy), FX Strategist Luis Estrada (Desk Strategy), LATAM FX Strategist * Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts
S1 · E115 · 1 Sep 2026 · 26 min
Back to school
As summer ends, financial markets face a crucial semester ahead. The next Fed meeting looms large and the path to hikes runs squarely through inflation, with or without, Warsh’s blessing. Until there is sustained progress on price pressures, market expectations will be sticky for pricing hikes. US-Canada trade tensions have escalated but the Canadian economy has managed past tariffs well and has fiscal space and flexibility to ride it out. Sustained above trend growth is required for the BoC to hike. The ECB will surely hike in September, but will they do more after that? The UK budget…
S1 · E114 · 29 Jul 2026 · 14 min
Yellow Card for Carry
The summer of soccer is over—and geopolitics and the Fed just took the pitch. Our EM strategists break down why they have locked in gains, where the Brazilian real goes from here, the South African rand's new vulnerability, and why the Korean won is the MVP of July. Abbas Keshvani (Desk Strategy) , Asia Macro Strategist Daria Parkhomenko (Desk Strategy) , FX Strategist Luis Estrada (Desk Strategy) , LATAM FX Strategist * Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts
S1 · E113 · 23 Jul 2026 · 16 min
Holding pattern
With the ECB keeping rates on hold, and the BOE and Fed expected to do the same, Blake and George explore what's really driving central bank decisions. From energy market pressures in Europe to an unexpectedly hawkish Fed backdrop, discover why holding steady is anything but straightforward in this week's policy meetings. Participants: Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy George Moran (Desk Strategy), European Macro Strategist * Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts
S1 · E112 · 16 Jul 2026 · 15 min
Rate hike fever crosses the Tasman Sea
In this all-Antipodean edition of Macro Minutes, Robert Thompson and Mary Jo Vergara discuss the RBNZ hiking the OCR rates for the first time in three years with more to come, in contrast to the RBA, which is stepping back into the shadows after three quick-fire hikes in February, March, and May. Participants: Robert Thompson (Desk Strategy), Head of Australian Economics & Rates Strategy Mary Jo Vergara (Desk Strategy), Senior Economist * Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts
S1 · E111 · 9 Jul 2026 · 18 min
Stall speed, holding pattern
The Canadian economy is at stall speed and the BoC is in a holding pattern. There has been no GDP growth and anemic employment gains over the last year – amid the dual forces of a population and trade shock. The consumer has actually been quite resilient in the face of these shocks. While the starting point should keep the BoC on hold for the rest of the year, better prospects for growth are ahead and this should see the BoC delivering hikes in 2027. Listen for more detailed views on the Canadian economy and fixed income markets in the coming quarters. Participants: Jason Daw (Desk…
S1 · E110 · 26 Jun 2026 · 16 min
The summer of soccer
In this month's Emerging Markets edition, Luis Estrada is joined by Abbas Keshvani and Dasha Parkhomenko to analyze recent developments across emerging markets. The discussion covers the changing direction of the US dollar, preferred trades for the current environment, and key risks to their outlook. Participants: Abbas Keshvani (Desk Strategy), Asia Macro Strategist Daria Parkhomenko (Desk Strategy), FX Strategist Luis Estrada (Desk Strategy), LATAM FX Strategist * Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts
S1 · E109 · 18 Jun 2026 · 21 min
We need to talk about Kevin!
In this special edition of Macro Minutes, Peter Schaffrik is joined by Blake Gwinn to dissect the first FOMC meeting under the new chairman Warsh. Blake shares his views on the task forces set up, the market reaction to the change in the SEP projections and explains why he still does not expect rate hikes this year. Participants: Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy * Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts
S1 · E108 · 12 Jun 2026 · 13 min
Going for a hike!
Straight after the ECB’s first rate increase in quite a few years, Cathal Kennedy and Peter Schaffrik discuss the ECB’s rate hike, the set of new forecast and the likely path going forward. Peter and Cathal also discuss next week’s BoE meeting and compare and contrast the two central banks’ approach to monetary policy at present. Participants: Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics Cathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK Economist * Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts
S1 · E107 · 5 Jun 2026 · 19 min
Investment strategy through the ‘up crash’ and beyond
Recorded at the Global Energy, Power, and Infrastructure Conference in New York, this special edition brings a real-time read on where markets stand. Lori Calvasina, Head of U.S. Equity Strategy, joined Amy Wu Silverman and Callie Simpkins for an on-the-ground conversation about the US equity outlook and key macro themes. They break down why inflation remains the risk to watch and what it means for equity market positioning. Participants: Lori Calvasina (Research), Head of U.S. Equity Strategy Amy Wu Silverman, Head of Derivatives Strategy Callie Simpkins, Managing Director, Cross-Asset…
S1 · E106 · 29 May 2026 · 17 min
Limbo of war
There are good reasons to wait for confirmation of a deal before loading up on risk. But while we wait, we recommend being oil-neutral via RV strategies between energy importers. In a post-war world, we see opportunities to turn bullish on currencies that have been dragged by the war. We also discuss potential the impact of politics in Latam and EMEA FX, China fiscal stimulus, KRW underperformance, and more. Abbas Keshvani (Desk Strategy), Asia Macro Strategist Daria Parkhomenko (Desk Strategy), FX Strategist Luis Estrada (Desk Strategy), LATAM FX Strategist * Research Analyst opinions are…
S1 · E105 · 15 May 2026 · 16 min
Anarchy in the UK?
Sterling markets have had a rough ride over the last few weeks. In part this is against the backdrop of the oil price shock, but it is also due to the domestic political uncertainty that has once again come to the fore. In this episode, Peter Schaffrik and Cathal Kennedy unpick the difficult situation, provide a view on the outcome of the recent turmoil along with an outlook on what the political landscape in the UK might look like in the months and years to come. Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics Cathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK Economist *…
S1 · E104 · 11 May 2026 · 22 min
Positivity isn’t always naivete
Equity markets keep hitting all-time highs. Rates markets are telling a more cautious story. So which one has it right? In this episode, we examine the complacency narrative through both an equity and rates lens, unpacking whether risk assets are fully pricing the range of Iran conflict outcomes or looking past risks that haven't fully materialized yet. We also dig into what a Warsh-led Fed means for forward guidance, dissent, and market volatility, and what the shifting policy backdrop means for how investors position across equities and rates. Participants: Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy),…
S1 · E103 · 28 Apr 2026 · 14 min
Searching for EM opportunities
Uncertainty on the path of the Iran conflict remains. The second and third order effects for the global economy have yet to be seen, but FX markets are taking an optimistic view on the outcome of the conflict. In this episode, we look at how emerging markets have been responding over the past two months, and what we are paying attention to for opportunities across Latin America, Asia, and EMEA. Participants: Abbas Keshvani (Desk Strategy), Asia Macro Strategist Daria Parkhomenko (Desk Strategy), FX Strategist Luis Estrada (Desk Strategy), LATAM FX Strategist * Research Analyst opinions are…
S1 · E102 · 15 Apr 2026 · 21 min
To hike, or not, that is the question
Market pricing for central bank policy rates has been on wild ride. Front-end yield spiked to extreme levels during the initial phase of the oil shock. They are lower now but in some countries painting a very different picture than before the war started. Policy responses will not be uniform across countries but some central banks might be inclined to move pre-emptively while others could wait a lot longer. In episode we discuss why hikes could occur by mid-year in the UK & Europe while the BoC and Fed will be more patient and hold the line. Participants: Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy),…
S1 · E101 · 9 Apr 2026 · 26 min
Private Credit - a public affair?
In this European episode of Macro Minutes, Peter is joined by Marc Sanchez who is RBC’s Head of European Financials Sector Strategy and recently wrote a detailed note about the private credit market and the potential pitfalls. Marc and Peter recap why markets have recently become wary of private credit, explore where the problems might lie and what potential contagion channels into the public markets exist. Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics Marc Sanchez (Desk Strategy), Head of European Financials Sector Strategy *Research Analyst opinions are their…
S1 · E100 · 2 Apr 2026 · 29 min
Weakest links!
In this episode, we examine how the Middle East conflict transmits economic shocks beyond energy markets, focusing on supply chain disruptions in Asia-Pacific and global inflationary pressures. Join us when we explore why commodity exporters like Australia are feeling the pinch, how central banks will respond to stagflation, and why US equities have remained resilient , though caution is warranted as more significant market headwinds may be emerging. Participants: Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics Robert Thompson (Research), Australian Macro Rates…
S1 · E99 · 26 Mar 2026 · 17 min
Stress Testing EMFX for Oil
The episode examines the Iran conflict through an emerging markets lens, analyzing recent developments and exploring two primary scenarios that could unfold in the coming weeks. The first scenario envisions rapid de-escalation that would allow oil prices to retreat toward $80 per barrel, providing relief to EM economies and supporting risk assets. The second scenario contemplates further escalation, potentially including boots-on-the-ground military intervention, which would keep oil prices elevated for an extended period. This sustained pressure would create headwinds for EM growth,…
S1 · E98 · 11 Mar 2026 · 17 min
Deja vu
In this European edition of Macro Minutes, we discuss the rise in energy prices in the wake of the Middle East conflict brings back painful memories of the 2022 energy shock for Europe. We dissect what is similar and what is different, quantify some impacts on inflation and growth estimates, and map a path forward for the ECB and BoE. Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics Cathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK Economist George Moran (Desk Strategy), European Macro Strategist * Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those…
S1 · E97 · 6 Mar 2026 · 16 min
A New Circularity
Concerns over the spending and investment circularity of the AI Ecosystem between chip makers, hyperscalers and data centers has shifted to a New Circularity, driving credit spreads wider. The New Circularity was initiated by new AI apps hitting software equity valuations and credit spreads, which in turn is feeding into concerns over vehicles exposed to that widening, namely the Broadly Syndicated loan market, the Private Credit market, BDCs and even Insurance Companies. Valuation declines have in turn driven redemption requests which has placed more pressure on credit spreads Participants:…
S1 · E96 · 25 Feb 2026 · 14 min
SCOTUS ruling EM-positive, risks remain
The US Tariff framework is changing. China is preparing for its National People’s Congress. Latin America is entering a period of political volatility. We give our take on the current EM environment. Participants: Richard Cochinos (Desk Strategy), FX Strategist Abbas Keshvani (Desk Strategy), Asia Macro Strategist Daria Parkhomenko (Desk Strategy), FX Strategist Luis Estrada (Desk Strategy), LATAM FX Strategist * Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts
S1 · E95 · 19 Feb 2026 · 25 min
Diversify the Buy
Over the past 6-12 months Treasury yields are rangebound, gold surged, but the USD has weakened. Despite the de-dollarization narrative, investors have continued to accumulate USD denominated assets, but with a cautious bias (i.e. hedging). To unpack these complexities you will hear insights from Blake Gwinn (Head of US Rates Strategy), Richard Cochinos (FX Strategy), and Chris Louney (Natural Gas and Gold Strategist). Participants: Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics Cathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK Economist Megum Muhic (Desk Strategy), UK Rates…
S1 · E94 · 12 Feb 2026 · 16 min
Introducing the new European Edition
In the first episode of our new monthly ‘European Edition’ we talk about political instability in the UK and its impact on markets. Despite the uncertainties, we still see value in the short end of the UK Gilt curve, also versus the EUR market. We also outline that we see the ECB on hold for the rest of the year despite inflation being below the 2% target and why we think the EUR yield curve steepening is far from over. Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics Cathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK Economist Megum Muhic (Desk Strategy), UK Rates Strategist *…
S1 · E93 · 5 Feb 2026 · 21 min
Golden opportunity?
There seems to be a confluence of factors that have conspired to be the perfect storm for gold. Prices gains have been parabolic, the recent correction severe, but dip buyers arrived in force to support the market. Is there still a golden opportunity in the shiny metal? Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy Christopher Louney (Research), Gold & Natural Gas Strategist * Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

About Macro Minutes

Macro Minutes is a English business podcast from RBC Capital Markets. Melo plays each episode straight from the publisher's own feed — no ads added, no account needed — and remembers where you stopped, in this browser only.

Publisher: RBC Capital Markets
Language: English
Category: Business
New episodes: Weekly
Typical length: 17 min
Latest episode: 14 Oct 2026
Feed: RSS — paste into any podcast app
Apple Podcasts: podcasts.apple.com/podcast/id1653147272

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