Episode notes
Bond yields have spiked globally led by an inter-related combination of oil prices and re-pricing of central bank terminal rates. Momentum and investors exiting long exposure has added fuel to the fire. To put it in context, the one-month increase in US 2y yields is one of the largest over the past 25 years. This has pushed up long term rates and flattened the curve. These dynamics haven’t been isolated to the US market; it is a global phenomenon. For now, risk asset such as equities and credit has been well behaved, but history shows when rates rise sharply and there is an accompanying…
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Macro Minutes
RBC Capital Markets · Business · English
Macro Minutes - RBC Capital Markets macro and market strategy series – explores the latest financial market and economic developments. Listen today to hear high conviction insights from RBC’s desk strategists and research analysts.
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S1 · E122 · 14 Oct 2026 · 16 minNew
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S1 · E121 · 7 Oct 2026 · 27 min
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S1 · E119 · 29 Sep 2026 · 12 min
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S1 · E118 · 17 Sep 2026 · 14 min
Time is ticking!
The ECB hiked rates a second time in this cycle last week and did not suggest that the 2.50% they previously flagged as top end of neutral will be a key line in the sand. In contrast, the BoE did not hike this week, but left the door wide open to do so – maybe even before the end of 2026. Listen to Peter and Cathal as they dissect both recent meetings and provide an outlook for the rates paths going forward against a difficult energy price outlook. Participants: Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics Cathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK Economist *…
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S1 · E116 · 11 Sep 2026 · 20 min
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S1 · E117 · 9 Sep 2026 · 11 min
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EM FX has enjoyed a lift from a constructive macro backdrop, with growth resilient and inflation generally under control. We retain a bullish bias (long KRW, MYR, BRL) but caution against being exposed to higher energy prices. We also maintain some hedge trades in our portfolio. Participants: Abbas Keshvani (Desk Strategy), Asia Macro Strategist Daria Parkhomenko (Desk Strategy), FX Strategist Luis Estrada (Desk Strategy), LATAM FX Strategist * Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts
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S1 · E115 · 1 Sep 2026 · 26 min
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As summer ends, financial markets face a crucial semester ahead. The next Fed meeting looms large and the path to hikes runs squarely through inflation, with or without, Warsh’s blessing. Until there is sustained progress on price pressures, market expectations will be sticky for pricing hikes. US-Canada trade tensions have escalated but the Canadian economy has managed past tariffs well and has fiscal space and flexibility to ride it out. Sustained above trend growth is required for the BoC to hike. The ECB will surely hike in September, but will they do more after that? The UK budget…
