Podcast · Business

Patrick Boyle On Finance

by Patrick Boyle · English · Business

New episodes: Weekly
Typical length: 32 min
Latest: 4 Oct 2026
Language: English

Latest episode

4 Oct 2026 · 34 min

Turkey's $20 Billion Fund Collapse Explained

In September 2026, Turkey's investment fund industry collapsed, after funds run by Tera and Pusula failed to meet redemptions and regulators froze and liquidated 131 funds holding about $20 billion of savings belonging to more than 455,000 investors. In this video, Patrick Boyle looks at how Emre Tezmen's Tera, which hoped to become "the Goldman Sachs of Turkey," reported returns of more than 66,000%, how funds buying thinly traded Borsa Istanbul stocks allegedly inflated their own valuations, and how money market funds that savers treated as cash ended up exposed to inflated shares through…

Play episode WhatsApp Download

Earlier episodes 29 most recent

S6 · E39 · 27 Sep 2026 · 33 min

Is Anthropic Worth Two Trillion Dollars?

Anthropic is preparing what could be the biggest IPO in history, at a reported valuation of around $2 trillion – while Nvidia, the company actually making money from AI, trades at its cheapest valuation in over a decade. In this video, finance professor Patrick Boyle looks at whether the AI boom is a bubble and what you would have to believe to pay $2 trillion for an AI lab. We cover the Anthropic and OpenAI IPO plans, why rising interest rates and a 5% ten-year Treasury yield are bad news for AI stocks, how "total addressable market" (TAM) estimates have been used to justify tech valuations…
S6 · E38 · 20 Sep 2026 · 32 min

The Doomsday Cult Inside OpenAI

In July 2026, a swarm of more than 1,000 OpenAI AI agents broke out of their testing sandbox and hacked Hugging Face — and the way they did it was far stranger, and far more mundane, than the headlines suggested. This video breaks down what actually happened: how the agents built a secret message board, invented a kind of religion, cheated on a cybersecurity exam called ExploitGym, and tried to cover their tracks — all to escape a punishment that didn't exist. Then we follow the money. Days after the details leaked, Dario Amodei, Sam Altman and Elon Musk suddenly agreed the industry should…
S6 · E37 · 13 Sep 2026 · 31 min

Why Germany Stopped Working

Germany just freed up half a trillion euros to rebuild itself — and eighteen months later, the money has barely moved. So, what has gone wrong with the country that used to be Europe's economic engine?Everyone has a favourite villain: the end of cheap Russian gas, Chinese competition, Trump's tariffs. But none of them explains why a town outside Berlin can't spend two million euros to resurface a road, even after the cash has been handed over. In this video I look at the real problem underneath Germany's economic stall — a system so built around caution and consensus that it can't move, even…
S6 · E36 · 5 Sep 2026 · 34 min

The Social Reckoning That Wasn't

Last month Meta agreed to pay up to $18 billion dollars to settle claims that it knowingly harmed teenagers — a number the press immediately called Big Tech's "tobacco moment." Wall Street responded by sending the stock up.In this video I read the actual 130-page consent judgment so that you don't have to, and work out what Meta really bought for its money. It turns out the headline figure is worth about two days of revenue, the "new" safety rules are mostly settings Meta had already written for itself, and the fine print lands rather more heavily on TikTok than on Meta. We'll also get into…
S6 · E35 · 30 Aug 2026 · 45 min

Scott Bessent Is at War With Prices — and Prices Are Winning!

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is trying to force down US Treasury yields with surprise bond buybacks — and it isn't working. In this video we break down Bessent's activist debt management strategy, why doubling the Treasury's long-dated buybacks is a bet on falling interest rates funded by short-term bills, and why his old boss Stanley Druckenmiller publicly tore the plan apart in a Wall Street Journal op-ed ("Let the Bond Market Speak"). We look at the collision with new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh after Jackson Hole, the 50% tariffs on Canada and the Mark Carney feud, "Operation…
S6 · E34 · 23 Aug 2026 · 36 min

How Much Would an AI Crash Destroy?

Two chip stocks recently drove seventeen percent of the entire global stock market's return in a single month — which tells you just how concentrated the AI trade has become, and how exposed the average investor now is without realising it. In this video we look at how much wealth an AI crash could actually destroy, with estimates from Dean Baker, former IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath, and Oliver Wyman running into the tens of trillions of dollars. We cover why the usual places to hide — small caps, value funds, international stocks — are now packed with AI stocks, what the Bank for…
S6 · E33 · 15 Aug 2026 · 32 min

The Hidden Risk in the US-Japan Yen Rescue

In July 2026, the US Treasury did something it hadn't done since 1998: it intervened in the currency markets to prop up the Japanese yen — and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, a former Soros hedge fund manager, ran the trade in the strangest way possible, selling euros instead of dollars without telling the ECB. But this was never really about Japan. It was about protecting American borrowing costs at a moment when the US is paying more to borrow than it has in decades — with 30-year Treasury yields hitting their highest since 2001. This video breaks down the US-Japan yen intervention, the…
S6 · E32 · 11 Aug 2026 · 40 min

Does Leopold Have Situational Awareness?

Last week, 24-year-old Leopold Aschenbrenner — former FTX staffer, ex-OpenAI researcher, and author of the viral 165-page essay "Situational Awareness" — managed to lose roughly two-thirds of his $45 billion hedge fund in a matter of weeks. The margin calls arrived during his wedding weekend.In this video I break down how a trader with no professional experience raised billions from Silicon Valley, why his AI "hedge" wasn't a hedge at all, and how leverage plus a concentrated bet on artificial intelligence stocks turned a great-looking expected return into a catastrophic outcome. Along the…
S6 · E31 · 4 Aug 2026 · 32 min

Big Tech's Hidden Debt Problem

Nikkei Asia recently reported that the five biggest US tech companies are carrying an estimated $1.65 trillion in "hidden," off-balance-sheet debt — and a lot of commentators have reached for the word "Enron" to describe the issue. In this video I look at whether that comparison holds up. It doesn't: unlike Enron, this debt isn't concealed through fraud — it's disclosed in the footnotes, it breaks no accounting rules, and much of what is going on is perfectly ordinary. But that raises a more interesting question than "will they get caught." If the aggressive stuff — the adjusted earnings,…
S6 · E30 · 27 Jul 2026 · 38 min

Where is Venezuela’s oil money?

When the United States took control of Venezuela's oil exports in early 2026, it collected an estimated $13 billion in crude sales — but the official ledger in Caracas records almost none of it, and six months on there is still no public accounting of where the money went. In this video we look at what happened to Venezuela's sovereign wealth: the missing oil revenues now sitting in an offshore account in Qatar, the four billion dollars of Venezuelan gold frozen in the vaults of the Bank of England that no one can legally claim, and the court-ordered auction that handed Citgo's parent…
S6 · E30 · 19 Jul 2026 · 37 min

The World's Best Stock Market Is Also Crashing!

South Korea has the best performing stock market in the world for the second year running — and it's also in the middle of one of the worst bear markets on earth. The KOSPI is down around 27% from its June peak, more than 1.2 million retail accounts have been hit with margin calls, and hundreds of thousands of Korean investors have been wiped out entirely. But this isn't a story about meme stocks or worthless companies. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are enormously profitable businesses at the center of the global AI boom, and the traders buying them were right about the trend. In this…
S6 · E29 · 12 Jul 2026 · 34 min

Is Russia Actually Losing?

Russia's war economy is running out of road. Ukrainian drone strikes have knocked out roughly a third of Russia's oil refining capacity, forcing an energy superpower to ration petrol at home and import gasoline from India — while Crimea sits under a state of emergency with the air-raid sirens switched off so the tourists aren't disturbed. In this video we look at what the numbers actually say: a contracting economy despite record military spending, a National Wealth Fund down from 6.5% of GDP to 1.8%, a first-quarter budget deficit that blew through the entire year's target in ninety days,…
S6 · E28 · 5 Jul 2026 · 26 min

The Real Reason European Cars Can't Compete

Europe's automotive industry is facing a historic crisis as Volkswagen weighs unprecedented factory closures and massive job cuts. However, the root of the problem isn't just high energy costs or European bureaucracy—it's China Shock 2.0. With Chinese electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers building cars significantly faster and for thousands of euros less, traditional German automakers are rapidly losing market share both at home and abroad. This video analyzes the structural trade imbalances flooding the market with subsidized EVs, explains why laying off workers won't solve Volkswagen's…
S6 · E27 · 28 Jun 2026 · 37 min

Brexit, 10 Years On: What It Actually Cost Britain

Ten years on from the 2016 Brexit referendum, the UK is about to appoint its seventh Prime Minister in a decade — so was Brexit worth it? In this video we break down the real economic impact of Brexit: how much it actually cost the UK economy, why the doom-laden Treasury forecasts and the Leave campaign's £350 million NHS bus were both wrong, and what the data really shows about GDP, trade, the City of London, and business investment. We dig into the goods-versus-services split, why the people who voted Leave were hit hardest while the metropolitan elites worked around it, the great…
S6 · E26 · 21 Jun 2026 · 28 min

How to Lose a Global AI Monopoly in One Afternoon

Last week, shortly after Anthropic launched its most powerful AI models, the U.S. government imposed export controls restricting foreign nationals from accessing them - and rather than try to verify the citizenship of every user on the planet within ninety minutes, Anthropic shut the models down for everyone. In this video we look at what actually happened: the Commerce Department's "is informed" letter, the deemed-export rules that locked Anthropic's own engineers out of their work, the claim that the "national security threat" was essentially an AI fixing software bugs, and the awkward…
S6 · E25 · 14 Jun 2026 · 39 min

What SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI’s IPOs mean for investors

Yesterday SpaceX became the largest company ever to go public, in an IPO that values Elon Musk's rocket-and-AI conglomerate at $1.78 trillion. But SpaceX is just the first. Anthropic and OpenAI have both filed to go public, Alphabet has just raised a record $85 billion in new stock, and Meta is reportedly considering doing the same. Goldman Sachs expects as much as $675 billion of new equity to hit the market this year.For two decades the stock market did nothing but shrink — companies stayed private, bought back their own shares, and got taken private by private equity, leaving less and…
S6 · E24 · 7 Jun 2026 · 27 min

When a Housing Boom Turns to Bust

A three-bedroom "dunger" in New Zealand with peeling paint and boarded-up windows sold for 1.81 million dollars at the peak of the boom. A few years later, prices had fallen by as much as a third in real terms, recent buyers were trapped in negative equity, and thousands of construction firms had gone under. In this video we look at how a national housing boom turns into a bust, why house prices became so unaffordable in the first place, and what it means for an economy when the family home stops being a place to live and becomes a leveraged investment.Along the way we cover the…
S6 · E23 · 30 May 2026 · 30 min

This Is Probably Fine!

US 30-year Treasury yields just hit 5.2% — the highest level since July 2007. UK gilt yields are at levels not seen since 1998. Japanese bond yields are at record highs. Something is happening in global bond markets, and it's not just about inflation.In this video I explain what's driving the global rise in long-term borrowing costs, why the era of free money is probably over, and what fiscal dominance means for central bank independence. I cover the history of US presidents fighting with the Federal Reserve — including LBJ shoving his Fed Chair against a wall — the 1970s UK economic…
S6 · E22 · 23 May 2026 · 30 min

The Most Unprofitable IPO in Wall Street History

This week, SpaceX filed the prospectus for what is expected to be the largest IPO in history. The document is extraordinary — part financial disclosure, part science fiction, and part governance structure that a corporate law professor has described as offering shareholders "no votes, no sales, and no suits." We look at the numbers, the products that don't yet exist, the AI business that SpaceX's own engineers won't use, the related-party transactions, the compensation package tied to a Mars colony the company admits is "improbable," and the one rocket that everything depends on. Everything…
S6 · E21 · 17 May 2026 · 26 min

What Trump's China Visit Actually Achieved.

As Donald Trump and Xi Jinping wrap up their summit in Beijing with little more to show for it than a few awkward handshakes, the media is left wondering where the big breakthrough went. But as we explore in this video, the failure of the "beans and Boeings" summit wasn’t a political failure—it was a certainty. Relying on the insights of economist Michael Pettis, we break down why trade surpluses and deficits are driven by domestic savings and investment choices, rather than trade policies or tariffs. From China’s systematic suppression of household consumption to the United States'…
S6 · E20 · 10 May 2026 · 31 min

The Dumbest Takeover Bid

GameStop — the meme stock famous for selling physical video game discs to people who no longer buy physical video game discs — has made an unsolicited 56 billion dollar offer to acquire eBay. GameStop is worth approximately 12 billion dollars. The offer is non-binding, the financing includes a highly confident letter from a Canadian bank, and the shares required to complete the deal have not yet been authorised by shareholders. CEO Ryan Cohen went on CNBC on Monday morning to explain how this would all work. He said the details were on the website. We looked at the website. Patrick's Books:…
S6 · E19 · 6 May 2026 · 51 min

The Unanchored Central Banker: Manoj Pradhan on Inflation, Demographics, and Why AI Won't Save Us

Today, Manoj Pradhan of Talking Heads macro and Fundamenta capital returns to the show to discuss his new book, co-authored with Charles Goodhart, which serves as a highly anticipated sequel to their prescient work, The Great Demographic Reversal. If you thought the recent era of high interest rates and sticky inflation was just a temporary post-pandemic blip, Manoj is here to explain why the future will be nothing like the past. In this episode, we take a hard look at where mainstream economists are getting it wrong. Manoj argues that conventional macroeconomic models suffer from massive…
S6 · E18 · 3 May 2026 · 33 min

Is Inflation About to Get Much Worse?

U.S. consumer sentiment has fallen to a 74-year low. Brent crude is above $125 a barrel. And several highly credible economists had been warning that inflation was coming back — long before the first missile was fired. In this video, we look at the structural forces — demographic, fiscal, and geopolitical — that are making inflation much harder to control, and why central banks may no longer have the tools or the political independence to do anything about it.Based in part on the new book "The Unanchored Central Banker" by Manoj Pradhan and Charles Goodhart. https://amzn.to/4n7hklUMy second…
S6 · E17 · 26 Apr 2026 · 28 min

Energy Markets are on the Verge of a Disaster

The stock market just hit a record high. Meanwhile, captains in the Persian Gulf are turning off their transponders and sneaking through the Strait of Hormuz in the dead of night. Only five ships made it through yesterday. The seaborne oil buffer that insulated the global economy in the early weeks of the conflict is now completely exhausted, and the knock-on effects - from jet fuel shortages in Europe to a fertilizer crisis threatening this year's harvest - are only just beginning to show up in the data. In this video, we look at why the physical commodity markets are telling a very…
S6 · E16 · 19 Apr 2026 · 30 min

The Bizarre World of Prediction Markets

Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket have been described as "truth machines" that produce more accurate forecasts than traditional polling. In this video we look at how they actually work, why the federal government is fighting individual states over who gets to regulate a bet on a football game, how a soldier allegedly used classified military intelligence to win money on a crypto betting site, and why quantitative trading firms are now paying traders $200,000 a year to build algorithms that systematically take money from retail bettors. We also look at the political connections…
S6 · E15 · 12 Apr 2026 · 31 min

How Did the Metaverse Fail So Badly?

In October 2021, Mark Zuckerberg stood in front of the world and announced that the future of human interaction would be something called the metaverse. He was so confident about this that he renamed his three-billion-user company after it. Over the following four years, Meta spent $88 billion building a virtual world that almost nobody visited, featuring avatars that — for reasons that were never fully explained — did not have legs. Wall Street predicted five billion users. Consultants declared it too big to ignore. A man paid $450,000 to become Snoop Dogg's virtual neighbour. The metaverse…
S6 · E14 · 8 Apr 2026 · 32 min

Canada is a Warning to the Rest of the World!

Canada has every advantage a country could ask for — vast natural resources, a stable democracy, world-class universities, and a highly educated population. So why has its GDP per capita fallen from 80% of the American level to around 70% in little more than a decade? In this video, we look at how a protected economy, a housing market that rewarded sitting still over building things, and a productivity gap that has been quietly compounding for thirty years have combined to create what the Bank of Canada called a "productivity emergency" — and what it might mean for the rest of the developed…
S6 · E13 · 29 Mar 2026 · 28 min

The Crisis Hidden Inside the Iran War

Equity markets have spent the past month treating the war in Iran like a minor inconvenience — a 'buy the dip' opportunity rather than a structural crisis. But while stock traders debate whether the President will 'TACO out' of the conflict, the real story is unfolding in the commodities that never make the headlines: LNG, helium, fertilizer, and aluminium. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, Qatar's liquefaction plants in ruins, and Oxford Economics estimating the waterway will remain largely impassable until May, no Truth Social post is going to fix this. In this video, we look…
S6 · E12 · 21 Mar 2026 · 25 min

Is Private Credit a Threat to The Financial System

While the world is distracted by global conflict, a panic is building in the private credit market. In this video, we go inside the opaque world of Private Credit - examine the "Golden Age" of lending that is rapidly turning into a slow-motion crisis. From the "volatility laundering" tricks used by managers to hide billion-dollar losses to the "Exit Trap" currently catching retail investors in BDCs, we explore how the search for yield led Wall Street directly to your 401(k). We look at why insiders like Boaz Weinstein are calling this a scandal, and what happens to the 48 million Americans…

About Patrick Boyle On Finance

This podcast is all about quantitative finance and financial history. Subscribe to hear about financial markets, derivatives, and how investors use quantitative tools from statistics and corporate finance theory. Included are interviews with some of the most interesting thinkers in finance. Occasional longer form financial documentaries, open up fascinating elements of financial markets history. Patrick Boyle is a quantitative hedge fund manager, a university professor, and a former investment banker. To contact Patrick visit http://onfinance.org Find Patrick on YouTube at: https://www.youtube.com/c/PatrickBoyleOnFinance DISCLAIMER:This podcast is not affiliated with any financial institution. The information provided is for entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Those seeking investment advice should seek out a registered professional in their home jurisdiction and confirm their credentials on your national regulator's website. Patrick Boyle is not responsible for any investment actions taken by viewers and his content should not be used as a basis for investment or other financial decisions.

Patrick Boyle On Finance is a English business podcast from Patrick Boyle. Melo plays each episode straight from the publisher's own feed — no ads added, no account needed — and remembers where you stopped, in this browser only.

Publisher: Patrick Boyle
Language: English
Category: Business
New episodes: Weekly
Typical length: 32 min
Latest episode: 4 Oct 2026
Feed: RSS — paste into any podcast app
Apple Podcasts: podcasts.apple.com/podcast/id1547740313
Website: onfinance.org
Rights: Patrick Boyle

RSS feed Apple Podcasts Website

More English business 6

Take it with you

The Melo app keeps playing with the screen off, works in the car and on your watch, wakes you to your station, and browses the whole catalogue offline. Free, no ads, no account.