Episode notes
US 30-year Treasury yields just hit 5.2% — the highest level since July 2007. UK gilt yields are at levels not seen since 1998. Japanese bond yields are at record highs. Something is happening in global bond markets, and it's not just about inflation.In this video I explain what's driving the global rise in long-term borrowing costs, why the era of free money is probably over, and what fiscal dominance means for central bank independence. I cover the history of US presidents fighting with the Federal Reserve — including LBJ shoving his Fed Chair against a wall — the 1970s UK economic…
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Patrick Boyle On Finance
Patrick Boyle · Business · English
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S6 · E28 · 5 Jul 2026 · 26 min
The Real Reason European Cars Can't Compete
Europe's automotive industry is facing a historic crisis as Volkswagen weighs unprecedented factory closures and massive job cuts. However, the root of the problem isn't just high energy costs or European bureaucracy—it's China Shock 2.0. With Chinese electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers building cars significantly faster and for thousands of euros less, traditional German automakers are rapidly losing market share both at home and abroad. This video analyzes the structural trade imbalances flooding the market with subsidized EVs, explains why laying off workers won't solve Volkswagen's…
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S6 · E27 · 28 Jun 2026 · 37 min
Brexit, 10 Years On: What It Actually Cost Britain
Ten years on from the 2016 Brexit referendum, the UK is about to appoint its seventh Prime Minister in a decade — so was Brexit worth it? In this video we break down the real economic impact of Brexit: how much it actually cost the UK economy, why the doom-laden Treasury forecasts and the Leave campaign's £350 million NHS bus were both wrong, and what the data really shows about GDP, trade, the City of London, and business investment. We dig into the goods-versus-services split, why the people who voted Leave were hit hardest while the metropolitan elites worked around it, the great…
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S6 · E26 · 21 Jun 2026 · 28 min
How to Lose a Global AI Monopoly in One Afternoon
Last week, shortly after Anthropic launched its most powerful AI models, the U.S. government imposed export controls restricting foreign nationals from accessing them - and rather than try to verify the citizenship of every user on the planet within ninety minutes, Anthropic shut the models down for everyone. In this video we look at what actually happened: the Commerce Department's "is informed" letter, the deemed-export rules that locked Anthropic's own engineers out of their work, the claim that the "national security threat" was essentially an AI fixing software bugs, and the awkward…
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S6 · E25 · 14 Jun 2026 · 39 min
What SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI’s IPOs mean for investors
Yesterday SpaceX became the largest company ever to go public, in an IPO that values Elon Musk's rocket-and-AI conglomerate at $1.78 trillion. But SpaceX is just the first. Anthropic and OpenAI have both filed to go public, Alphabet has just raised a record $85 billion in new stock, and Meta is reportedly considering doing the same. Goldman Sachs expects as much as $675 billion of new equity to hit the market this year.For two decades the stock market did nothing but shrink — companies stayed private, bought back their own shares, and got taken private by private equity, leaving less and…
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S6 · E24 · 7 Jun 2026 · 27 min
When a Housing Boom Turns to Bust
A three-bedroom "dunger" in New Zealand with peeling paint and boarded-up windows sold for 1.81 million dollars at the peak of the boom. A few years later, prices had fallen by as much as a third in real terms, recent buyers were trapped in negative equity, and thousands of construction firms had gone under. In this video we look at how a national housing boom turns into a bust, why house prices became so unaffordable in the first place, and what it means for an economy when the family home stops being a place to live and becomes a leveraged investment.Along the way we cover the…
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S6 · E22 · 23 May 2026 · 30 min
The Most Unprofitable IPO in Wall Street History
This week, SpaceX filed the prospectus for what is expected to be the largest IPO in history. The document is extraordinary — part financial disclosure, part science fiction, and part governance structure that a corporate law professor has described as offering shareholders "no votes, no sales, and no suits." We look at the numbers, the products that don't yet exist, the AI business that SpaceX's own engineers won't use, the related-party transactions, the compensation package tied to a Mars colony the company admits is "improbable," and the one rocket that everything depends on. Everything…
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S6 · E21 · 17 May 2026 · 26 min
What Trump's China Visit Actually Achieved.
As Donald Trump and Xi Jinping wrap up their summit in Beijing with little more to show for it than a few awkward handshakes, the media is left wondering where the big breakthrough went. But as we explore in this video, the failure of the "beans and Boeings" summit wasn’t a political failure—it was a certainty. Relying on the insights of economist Michael Pettis, we break down why trade surpluses and deficits are driven by domestic savings and investment choices, rather than trade policies or tariffs. From China’s systematic suppression of household consumption to the United States'…
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S6 · E20 · 10 May 2026 · 31 min
The Dumbest Takeover Bid
GameStop — the meme stock famous for selling physical video game discs to people who no longer buy physical video game discs — has made an unsolicited 56 billion dollar offer to acquire eBay. GameStop is worth approximately 12 billion dollars. The offer is non-binding, the financing includes a highly confident letter from a Canadian bank, and the shares required to complete the deal have not yet been authorised by shareholders. CEO Ryan Cohen went on CNBC on Monday morning to explain how this would all work. He said the details were on the website. We looked at the website. Patrick's Books:…
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S6 · E19 · 6 May 2026 · 51 min
The Unanchored Central Banker: Manoj Pradhan on Inflation, Demographics, and Why AI Won't Save Us
Today, Manoj Pradhan of Talking Heads macro and Fundamenta capital returns to the show to discuss his new book, co-authored with Charles Goodhart, which serves as a highly anticipated sequel to their prescient work, The Great Demographic Reversal. If you thought the recent era of high interest rates and sticky inflation was just a temporary post-pandemic blip, Manoj is here to explain why the future will be nothing like the past. In this episode, we take a hard look at where mainstream economists are getting it wrong. Manoj argues that conventional macroeconomic models suffer from massive…
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S6 · E18 · 3 May 2026 · 33 min
Is Inflation About to Get Much Worse?
U.S. consumer sentiment has fallen to a 74-year low. Brent crude is above $125 a barrel. And several highly credible economists had been warning that inflation was coming back — long before the first missile was fired. In this video, we look at the structural forces — demographic, fiscal, and geopolitical — that are making inflation much harder to control, and why central banks may no longer have the tools or the political independence to do anything about it.Based in part on the new book "The Unanchored Central Banker" by Manoj Pradhan and Charles Goodhart. https://amzn.to/4n7hklUMy second…
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